Volume 10, Number 4, 2004 (working draft)

What you have here is a working draft trial to determine what needs to be done to have clean copy of this as a sample WTPP number in the Archives. It needs of course to be cleaned up, properly formated and have the various graphics included. In the meantime, if you can make do with a PDF it is availablle on the Eco-Logica site at http://www.eco-logica.co.uk/pdf/wtpp01.1.pdf. The great advantage here, despite the presentation problems is that in this way our readers will be able to access by keyword the entire contents of the volume. Which of course is the main job of this archive.

World Transport Policy & Practice

ISSN 1352-7614

Volume 10, Number 4, 2004

http://www.roadpeace.org

dedicated to supporting road crash victims

World Transport Policy & Practice

ISSN 1352-7614

Volume 10, Number 4, 2004

Contents

3 Abstracts & Keywords

4 Editorial

5 World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention

Meleckidzedeck Khayesi & Margie Peden

8 Promoting inclusion through Bus Quality Partnerships in southwest England

Kazushige Terada & John Dinwoodie

15 The ‘YOU-move.nrw’ campaign – New partnerships for youth-oriented and environmentally friendly

mobility management

Oscar Reutter

22 An evaluation of the traffic and financial performance of the MRT-3 light-rail/metro line in Manila

Marius de Langen, Edwin Alzate & Hillie Talens

32 Evaluating bicycle-car transport mode competitiveness in an urban environment. An activity-based

approach

Frank Witlox & Hans Tindemans

43 Book Review

45 Author & Title Index to Volume 10, 2004

47 Conference Announcement

48 Notes for contributors

© 2004 Eco-Logica Ltd

Editor

Professor John Whitelegg

Stockholm Environmental Institute at York, Department of Biology, University of York, P.O. Box 373, YORK, YO10 5YW, U.K.

Editorial board

Eric Britton

Managing Director, EcoPlan International, The Centre for Technology & Systems Studies, 8/10 rue Joseph Bara, F­75006 Paris, FRANCE.

Professor John Howe

Independent Transport Consultant, Oxford, U.K.

Mikel Murga

Leber Planificacion e Ingenieria, S.A., Apartado 79, 48930-Las Arenas, Bizkaia, SPAIN.

Paul Tranter

School of Physical Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra ACT 2600, Australia

Publisher

Eco-Logica Ltd., 53, Derwent Road, LANCASTER, LA1 3ES, U.K. Telephone +44 1524 63175

E-mail: Editorial: <John.Whitelegg@phonecoop.coop>                                                    Business Manager: <pascaldesmond@eircom.net>

World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention

Meleckidzedeck Khayesi & Margie Peden

This paper is a synopsis of a major report by the WHO which collates information on crashes worldwide. It summarises the key findings and the recommendations of the report.

Keywords

crashes, fatalities, injury prevention

Promoting inclusion through Bus Quality Partnerships in southwest England

Kazushige Terada & John Dinwoodie

Following deregulation of local bus services and reducing subsidies, investment in low floor vehicles and bus shelters to combat exclusion in rural and ageing populations in southwest England depended on attracting corporate funding. Bus quality partnerships developed existing relationships between operators and authorities to attain common objectives and embed corporate corridor strategy plans into Local Transport Plans. Dynamic local markets suited flexible demand-responsive partnerships with monitoring to ensure best value for money and promote inclusion.

Keyword

Quality bus partnerships, inclusion, southwest England.

The ‘YOU-move.nrw’ campaign – New partnerships for youth-oriented and environmentally friendly mobility management

Oscar Reutter

In the summer of 2002 the Wuppertal Institute evaluated the YOU-move.nrw campaign which was organised in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The campaign is a ‘soft factor’ policy designed to promote environmentally friendly modes of transport. It is targeted at the youth market to encourage environmentally friendly modes of transport and to increase public awareness of sustainable mobility.

Keywords

North Rhine-Westphalia, teenage travel, YOU-move.nrw, youth transport

An evaluation of the traffic and financial performance of the MRT-3 light-rail/metro line in Manila

Marius de Langen, Edwin Alzate & Hillie Talens This paper documents the performance of the Metro Rail Transit Line 3 (MRT-3) light rail line in Manila.

  • Capacity utilisation is around 100% in the peak, 60% during the daytime and 30% in the evening hours.
  • MRT-3 has not attracted car drivers. Of MRT-3 passengers, 99% do not have their own car available for the trip. However, 27% made their trips as car passengers before.
  • The dominant user is 25–40 years (73%), middle income (66%), 52% female and 48% male. Most trips

are for work, school or business (82%).

  • Travellers are very satisfied with the level of service.
  • Utilisation was highly sensitive to the tariff. Full capacity utilisation was only reached after fare reduction to just above the bus fare.
  • Fare revenue is structurally insufficient to recover costs (2002: 20%).
  • Profit on real estate development linked to MRT stations is high, due to their good accessibility. This, plus value increase of other real estate along the MRT (for the same reason) outweighs the total cost of line construction and operation.
  • MRT-3 is financially attractive for the Metro Rail Transit Corporation. The Philippine government carries all operational risk and receives a modest share of real estate revenues. Subsidy up to 2023 will probably be around 50%.

Keywords

Light rail evaluation, light rail and land use, Manila, Mass Rapid Transit, public transport, modal shift, transport in developing countries

Evaluating bicycle-car transport mode competitiveness in an urban environment. An activity-based approach

Frank Witlox & Hans Tindemans

Since the bicycle is believed to be an important sustainable alternative for the increasingly problematic auto-mobility, this paper discusses the potential modal shift from car to bicycle in the urban region of Ghent. Based on travel diary data the relationships between mode, activity, distance, location and socio-demographic background are explored. In addition, specific attention is paid to urban level of the origin and destination of each trip and to the influence of distance and speed as crucial factors for the competitiveness of cycling to car and other transportation modes.

Keywords

modal split, modal shift, activity-based approach, bicycle travel, Ghent city region

Five out of the seven top world oil producers have now passed their peak oil production. Oil production is now falling away in these countries. At the same time the economies of India and China are growing at unprecedented rates and China is adding 11,000 vehicles per day to its fleet. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank are encouraging and funding highway construction in many countries around the world and everywhere the ideology of motorisation and oil dependency is firmly locked into economic strategies, development strategies and political priority setting.

In December 2004 the capital city of Bangladesh, Dhaka, abolished cycle rickshaws, Chinese cities are discriminating against bicycles and in most Indian and African cities walking is almost impossible because of the poor quality of pedestrian facilities and the lack of pedestrian pavements.

Does all this matter?

Well, yes it does. We are on a global collision course marked out by a headlong rush to increase the amount of oil we are using at the same time as the quantity of oil available is declining. The pressure on this resource will increase the price of oil to over $100 per barrel and the losers will be over 3 billion people in the world who will suffer a decline in resources available for water, sanitation, basic food and health care as governments reallocate budgets to continue to pay for oil. From a government point of view they will have no choice. They will have built the highways. Beijing now has 5 ring roads and plans more. They will have constructed new industrial areas based on energy intensive industries and they will have built millions of domestic and commercial properties with poor quality energy ratings, new air conditioning requirements and yet more demand for scarce oil. Cities will have spread out over the countryside so that distances are less easily traversed by foot and bike and buses will find it difficult to serve a widely dispersed population.

This problem is much bigger than transport and threatens all the millennium development goals aimed at reducing poverty. It is poor people who will suffer from lack of food and famine, lack of water and sanitation and breakdown in transport systems.
Almost every government, politician, multi-lateral bank and large corporation is actively working to exacerbate this problem. It is almost as if it is forbidden to talk about oil dependency and oil scarcity. There is no political or ethical leadership in the world that is proclaiming in loud and clear terms that we need to reduce oil dependency and ‘dependency-proof’ all nations, but especially poorer nations, from this impending disaster. This is a measure of the degree to which cars, aircraft, lorries, logistics, oil and banks have taken over the reins of government. Government, in its turn, is locked into economic growth as the sole organising principle of government and the sole articulation of the meaning of life. We will grow because we must grow and we must grow because we must grow. Oil dependency questions do not fit into this self-serving and self-justifying mantra.

We can solve these problems. Reducing oil dependency is not difficult. We can re-engineer transport systems in the way that ten years of this journal has made clear. We can design buildings so that they use 10% of the energy that they would use if built in traditional ways. We can design buildings to require very little, if any, air conditioning. We can grow and supply food from areas very near to cities as was done in Kolkata before rampant urbanisation destroyed the growing areas. We can generate electricity from renewable sources and abandon the centralised grid so that energy can be supplied and used in the same place.

All these transformations will reduce energy use and pollution, combat climate change and poverty and make the world a more secure place.

The alternative to these intelligent solutions is high oil prices, a few more wars to secure oil and massive poverty, famine and misery for poor people on a planetary scale. On current evidence this is the option that will be followed.

John Whitelegg

Editor

World Transport Policy & Practice

Please see the conference announcement on page 47

World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention Meleckidzedeck Khayesi & Margie Peden

Address for correspondence

Meleckidzedeck Khayesi

Department of Injuries and Violence Prevention, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

<khayesim@who.int>                                                                                                                 http://www.who.int/

Abstract

This paper is a synopsis of a major report by the WHO which collates information on crashes worldwide. It summarises the key findings and the recommendations of the report.

Keywords

crashes, fatalities, injury prevention

Introduction

Movement by road arises from the need to fulfil multiple purposes by individuals and societies. Road transport is important in the socio-economic life of human societies in different parts of the world. However, this mode of transport is faced with the growing problem of road traffic collisions and injuries. Daily, thousands of people are killed, injured or disabled on the world’s roads. It is estimated that about one million persons die every year due to road traffic collisions. This figure represents men, women and children walking, biking or riding to school or work, playing in the streets or setting out on long trips, who will never return home. Their deaths leaves behind shattered hopes, families and communities. It is estimated that 20 million–50 million people are injured each year. These people will spend long weeks in hospital and many will never be able to live, work or play as they used to do. In practical terms, the families and friends of these persons have to incur expenses for their medical services and rehabilitation.

Though the impact of road traffic injuries is immense and the numbers are predicted to increase, it is sad to note that this problem is largely neglected and there is a disturbing indifference to this scourge of road transport and motor vehicle use (Whitelegg, 2004). There is therefore a need for a sustained advocacy effort to place this problem high on the agenda of governments and other stakeholders. This problem requires an effective multi-sectoral response that is based on sound evidence and good practice. This paper presents a summary of the key findings of the joint World Health Organization/World Bank World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention that addresses this need by providing current knowledge about road traffic injuries and strategies for prevention (Peden et al., 2004). The central theme of the Report is the burden of road traffic injuries and the urgent need
for governments and other key players to increase and sustain action to prevent road traffic injuries. The specific objectives are:

  • to describe the burden, intensity, pattern and impacts of road traffic injuries at global, regional and national levels;
  • to examine the key determinants and risk factors;
  • to discuss interventions and strategies that can be employed to address the problem; and
  • to make recommendations for action at local, national and international levels.

The Report was developed over a period of 18 months through an interactive and collaborative process by institutions and individuals. The process was co-ordinated by the World Health Organization and the World Bank. This Report is the joint work of over 200 experts from 80 countries, representing all continents and different sectors – including transport, engineering, health, police, education, civil society, private sector and non-governmental organisations. The Report was extensively discussed and reviewed by scientists and practitioners.

What are the key findings of this Report?

The Report emphasises the role of public health in the prevention of road traffic injuries and covers the fundamental concepts and prerequisites of road traffic injury prevention, the intensity and impact of road traffic injuries, key determinants and risk factors, intervention strategies, and recommendations. The key findings of the Report are summarised below.

Road traffic injuries are a huge public health and development problem predicted to worsen if appropriate action is not taken

  • 1.2 million persons die each year due to road traffic collisions. This means that on average 3242 people are killed daily on the world’s roads.
  • 20 million–50 million people are injured or disabled in road collisions every year.
  • Road traffic injuries are 11th leading cause of death worldwide and account for 2.1% of all deaths globally.
  • More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults between 15 and 44 years of age.
  • 73% of all road traffic fatalities are male.

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World Transport Policy & Practice, Volume 10, Number 4, (2004) 5–7                                                                       6

Table 1. Predicted road traffic fatalities by region (in thousands),

adjusted for under-reporting,                                      –1990–2020

Number of countries Change (%)
Region                                                surveyed 2000 2020 2000–2020
East Asia and Pacific 15 188 337 79
East Europe and Central Asia 9 32 38 19
Latin America and Caribbean 31 122 180 48
Middle East and North Africa 13 56 94 68
South Asia 7 135 330 144
Sub-Saharan Africa 46 80 144 80
Sub-total 121 613 1124 83
High-income countries 35 110 80 –27
Total 156 723 1204 67
Source: Kopits & Cropper (2003)
  • Road traffic injuries are predicted to become the third largest contributor to the global burden of disease by 2020.
  • Road traffic deaths are predicted to increase by 83% in low-income and middle-income countries, and to decrease by 27% in high-income countries. The overall global increase is predicted to be 67% by 2020 if appropriate action is not taken (Table 1).

The majority of road traffic injuries occur in low- and middle-income countries

  • The WHO African region had the highest mortality rate in 2002, at 28.3 per 100 000, followed closely by the low-income and middle-income countries of the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region, at 26.4 per 100 000 population (Table 2).
  • The most vulnerable road users in these countries are pedestrians, cyclists, users of motorised two-wheelers and passengers on informal public transport.

The cost of road traffic injuries is enormous

  • Every year, road traffic injuries are estimated to cost US$ 518 billion globally and US$ 65 billion in low and middle income countries or between 1% and 2% of gross national product in all countries.
  • Health facilities and their often meagre budgets are greatly overstretched in dealing with survivors of road traffic crashes.
  • Many families are driven deeper into poverty by the expense of prolonged medical care, loss of a family breadwinner or the added burden of caring for the disabled.

Major risk factors are identifiable

  • Factors influencing exposure to risk: economic and demographic factors, land use, travel modes, road design.
  • Factors influencing crash involvement: speed, alcohol and other drugs, fatigue, vulnerable road users, vehicle factors, defects in road design.
  • Factors influencing crash severity: human tolerance, speed, alcohol and other drugs, not using seat-belts, child restraints, helmets, insufficient vehicle crash protection, unforgiving roadside objects.
  • Factors influencing severity of post-crash injuries: chain of medical care from pre-hospital to rehabilitation.

Road safety should be addressed using a ‘systems approach’

  • Road traffic injury prevention requires understanding and taking actions to address the whole system related to road safety: vehicles, roads, road users and their physical, social and economic environments.
  • This means that the focus should be on addressing road safety in a holistic manner rather than solely focusing on direct approaches aimed at changing the behaviour of road users.

Road safety is a shared responsibility and public health has a key role to play

  • There is need for close co-ordination and collaboration, using a holistic and integrated approach, across many sectors and many disciplines.

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World Transport Policy & Practice, Volume 10, Number 4, (2004) 5–7                                                                       7

  • The key role that public health can play in the prevention of road traffic injuries includes:

– the collection and analysis of data in order to demonstrate the health and economic impact of road traffic crashes;

– research on risk factors;

– the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of interventions;

– the delivery of appropriate primary prevention, care and rehabilitation for injured people; and

– advocacy for greater attention to the problem. Road traffic injuries can be prevented

  • Road traffic injuries are not random events. They are predictable and can therefore be prevented.
  • Experience from different countries shows that concerted efforts targeted at the risk factors already identified above can bring about reduction in the numbers of casualties and injuries, and overall improvement in road safety.

Recommendations of the Report

The Report concludes by offering six

recommendations which can be taken up at a national and international level. These six recommendations are:

a)   Identify a lead agency in government to guide the national road traffic safety effort.

b)   Assess the problem, policies and institutional settings.

c)    Prepare a national road safety strategy and plan of action.

d)   Allocate financial and human resources to address the problem.

e)    Implement specific actions to prevent road traffic
crashes, minimise injuries and their consequences, and evaluate the impact of these actions.

f)    Support the development of national capacity and international co-operation.

Conclusion

This Report, released on 7th April 2004, on the occasion of World Health Day that focused on road safety, is an important part of the global response to the world’s road safety crisis. The World Health Organization, World Bank and other partners hope that this Report will be useful to people, organisations, governments and communities in getting attention to the problem at the highest political level around the world. A key message of the Report is that road traffic crashes are predictable and therefore preventable. Political will and commitment are essential and without them little can be achieved in road traffic injury prevention.

References

Kopits, E. & Cropper, M. (2003) Traffic fatalities and economic growth (Policy Research Working Paper No. 3035) World Bank, Washington, DC.

Peden, M., Scurfield, R., Sleet, D., Mohan, D., Hyder, A.A., Jarawan, E. & Mathers, C. (Eds) (2004) The World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention World Health Organization, Geneva. http://www.who.int/violenceinjuryprevention Accessed 9 July 2004.

Whitelegg, J. (2004) ‘Weapons of mass destruction and global indifference to 1 million deaths each year on the world’s roads’ Inaugural RoadPeace Lecture, London, 8th April 2004 http://www.eco-logica.co.uk/roadpeace.html  Accessed 9 July 2004.

Promoting inclusion through Bus Quality Partnerships in southwest England

Kazushige Terada & John Dinwoodie

Address for correspondence

Dr John Dinwoodie

Principal Lecturer, Centre for International Shipping and Logistics, University of Plymouth Business School, Plymouth, UK

<jdinwoodie@plymouth.ac.uk>                                                                                            http://www.plymouth.ac.uk

Abstract

Following deregulation of local bus services and reducing subsidies, investment in low floor vehicles and bus shelters to combat exclusion in rural and ageing populations in southwest England depended on attracting corporate funding. Bus quality partnerships developed existing relationships between operators and authorities to attain common objectives and embed corporate corridor strategy plans into Local Transport Plans. Dynamic local markets suited flexible demand-responsive partnerships with monitoring to ensure best value for money and promote inclusion.

Keyword

Quality bus partnerships, inclusion, southwest England.

Introduction

Provision of basic levels of public transport in highly rural areas may offer some residents their sole source of mobility and thereby opportunities to access essential services (Social Exclusion Unit, 2003). To counter exclusion in highly rural and ageing populations such as those in southwest England, effective support for basic service provision is essential. This entails a minimum level of infrastructure provision, to ensure economic and social cohesion and maintain viable communities in rural areas (Transport 2000 & CPRE, 2000). With few independent revenue sources available to local government in England, revenue shortfalls must be offset by allocated central government grants. Whilst local government transport policies rely on creative ingenuity to realise a transport system appropriate to local conditions, central government must guide local policies and secure inclusion through a trunk network by offering support within defined conditions. To further environmental objectives in urban areas, trip suppression is often appropriate but, without minimum networks of service provision in rural areas, modal switching from private cars to public transport becomes unrealistic.

Dr. Kazushige Terada, Professor of Transport Policy, Department of Logistics and Information Engineering, Faculty of Marine Technology, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan.
Until the mid-1980s, England’s Passenger Transport Authorities in urban areas owned bus operators via Passenger Transport Executives (PTEs) but directly marketed bus services, monitored demand and set fares. Increasing demands for local government support for the bus sector to sustain low fares prompted central government to privatise the National Bus Company and PTEs and to deregulate local bus services. When Transport Supplementary Grant support for buses was prohibited, subsidy designed to ensure reduced bus journey times and facilitate bus loading and unloading also ended. After deregulation, as revenue-starved bus companies deferred vehicle updates, investment in low floor buses halted, potentially excluding many prospective users.

Post-1997, New Labour formulated an ‘integrated transport’ policy favouring attempts to reduce car use to counter environmental damage and congestion (Preston, 2003). The Transport Act 2000 introduced 5-year Local Transport Plans (LTP) incorporating a mandatory policy statement on bus strategy. Funding bids came to ensconce the principle that better use of buses could realise both modal switches and social inclusion, although many local authorities needed to consult on which policies were best suited to reviving their local bus services. By 1998, a process of mergers and acquisitions had shaped the present industry structure dominated by First Group, Stagecoach and Arriva, with a few smaller companies. Where particular companies dominated particular counties or unitary authorities, there was little scope for replacing operators, including ‘municipals’ such as Plymouth City Bus that retained close links with the City Council. Through regular consultations, agreements known as Quality Bus Partnerships (QBPs) developed between local authorities and bus operators (TAS, 2001). Over time, corridor based plans evolved to express the spatial elements of public transport systems, eventually coming to embed the spatial management requirements and strategies of public transport operators into LTPs (CfIT, 2002).

The 1998 Competition Act prohibits anti­competitive agreements between operators excepting some offering other consumer benefits (Office of Fair Trading, 2003). In a similar vein, the Transport Act

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Figure 1. Map of the Counties of Cornwall & Devon showing the District Councils as well as Plymouth City Council & Torbay District Council

100 km                                                      N

2000 only permits QBPs and ticketing schemes between authorities and operators that also enact local policies to develop transport facilities and services, subject to a competition test. Schemes with no significant adverse effect on competition are permitted under Office of Fair Trading guidelines, as are those where any adverse impacts on competition are mitigated by proportionate benefits arising from improved quality of vehicles or facilities, quicker, more reliable or frequent services, or reduced congestion or pollution.

This work investigates how local bus policies in England evolved to generate quality bus partnerships and contracts between operators and authorities. Based on analysis of partnerships including interviews with officials and operators, it presents examples of recent initiatives in Devon and Cornwall enticing private sector funding for infrastructure provision incorporating low floor vehicles and bus shelters. Initiatives embraced both urban and rural bus challenge

initiatives. Work concludes by discussing issues of implementation in the local context, noting conditions that favour success and promote inclusion.

Quality Bus Partnerships

Of 380 QBPs in force in 2001, 246 covered individual schemes such as corridor agreements and 134 were process agreements. A scheme agreement is a corridor specific project or bus information project, with 75% being route, site or corridor specific (TAS, 2002), but a process agreement, covering at least two schemes, is an umbrella agreement providing an overarching
relationship or strategic framework between partners. Bilateral agreements reflect the existence of a sole operator prior to current competition regulation but relatively few QBPs involved only one authority and one operator, with 40% involving at least five partners and one umbrella QBP in Greater Manchester comprised up to 70 partners (TAS, 2001).

Informal QBPs with no written agreement were typical of early agreements in the late 1990s, but posed problems in identifying or monitoring the achievement of common objectives, bringing few concrete results (TAS, 2002). By 2000, most QBPs were informal but, although including an exchange of written agreements, carried no sanctions for failure to comply. Broken trust effectively ended agreements. The Transport Act 2000 introduced statutory QBPs whereby authorities undertook to provide particular facilities and operators using them undertook to operate services to a particular standard.

A common objective of QBPs is to raise bus patronage, thereby raising operator revenue and, under normal circumstances, profits. If QBPs succeed in promoting bus use network-wide requiring less revenue support from local authorities to secure requisite levels of service provision, this objective suits both authorities and operators alike. Objectives to increase patronage are relatively easy to monitor but operators are understandably reluctant to disclose commercially sensitive passenger and revenue data at the level of detail required by clauses in some QBPs. To identify conveniently and accurately the precise net increase of

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ridership and revenue resulting from QBPs authorities sought access to ticket machine based data. Complementary attempts to promote smart card systems entailed some subsides for ticket machines, but in terms of authorities attempting to monitor service reliability, new real time service information systems can present further opportunities. Where QBPs seek to promote a modal switch from private cars to buses, they may raise politically sensitive local issues of parking and bus priority and if local elections engender changes in transport policies or personalities, operators may eschew long term commitments to elected members. Although LTPs attempted to counter opportunism and myopia in formulating local transport policies through incorporating longer-term elements including a bus strategy, they can not prevent policy reversals following local elections. Where QBPs have sought to promote social inclusion, further problems have arisen in specifying and monitoring detailed quantitative targets linking transport to other policy objectives.

Initially, authorities feared quantitative monitoring of outcomes, but by 2000, 67% of schemes were monitored rising to 93% in 2001, covering patronage rather than modal share or reliability (TAS, 2002). Without monitored outcomes, developing QBPs further proved problematic as informal partnerships without written agreements failed to address issues such as additionality, requiring some mechanism for identifying and attributing the contribution arising solely from the QBP which would not have happened anyway. Without additionality, some bus service improvements, reputedly attributable to QBPs may have grown from earlier policies. Equally, subsidiarity implies that QBPs are redundant if local authorities would have performed relevant functions regardless of them. In the absence of monitoring, some authorities anticipated that QBPs would not affect the total number of vehicles or low floor vehicles, and some operators feared that despite signing agreements, local authorities may not change plans or spending on bus priority and infrastructure. Whilst increasing initial expenditure is mutually attractive, QBP projects also entail ongoing maintenance expenditure. Because many early QBPs made no provision for monitoring results and outcomes (TAS, 2001; 2002), extending later agreements to broader areas and linking them to wider strategic planning proved difficult.

Funding passenger facilities

Between 1999 and 2001, £470 million was invested in QBPs. Most expenditure was on vehicles and facilities for traffic priority such as bus lanes and guided buses. Bus infrastructure investment was
concentrated in urban areas, where congestion increases the potential for quicker running (TAS, 2002). QBPs in rural areas and small towns applied only on key routes, with funding from central government through the Rural Bus Challenge and Urban Bus Challenge , or Rural Transport Partnerships. In rural areas including southwest England most expenditure is on vehicle and service quality with a larger share of expenditure by bus companies than local authorities. Much local authority expenditure on QBPs involves bus priority systems, but bus companies only contribute to a few large projects. Short term, with only finite and fixed road space available, local authority commitment to bus priority measures in the LTP bus strategy may encourage operators to join QBPs but residents who use cars often oppose them.

The proportion of low floor vehicles in UK bus fleets rose from 8% in 1998 to 29% in 2003 and is targeted at 50% by 2010 (DfT, 2003). To support such operations and promote inclusion, authorities built corresponding facilities such as bus boarders. Loading and unloading facilities including bus stop shelters are important components of QBPs, but outside of rural areas, expenditure on them is minimal. Agreements guiding the leasing of advertising space on shelters avoid financial demands on local authorities or bus operators for construction, repair and maintenance. In Cheltenham the borough council entered into a contract with the shelter provider to provide and maintain shelters for 20 years, having failed to deliver sufficient high quality shelters without advertising. Nottingham County Council negotiated a contract to provide 600 shelters for 25 years. One-third contain advertising space. The West Midlands PTE sells only advertising space to shelter providing companies (TAS, 2001). Where reduced patronage in rural areas and small towns makes such devices for securing bus shelters less accessible to local authorities, QBPs in

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Table 2. Plymouth City Council bus strategy 2001 to 2005 Objectives and targets of the bus strategy are :to:

  • Reduce journey time through improving reliability by 10% on radial routes by 2005
  • Reduce loading time by 10% to minimise bus stop dwell time by 2005
  • Provide 6 or 12 buses per hour on key corridors
  • Provide services on all corridors at even intervals
  • Provide 1 or 3 buses per hour on trunk routes in suburban areas
  • Provide joint ticketing in the whole city
  • Provide a seat for all passengers on all services
  • Increase punctuality by no early running and 95% of services running within 1 to 5 minutes of the schedule
  • Reduce the age of the bus fleet to an average of 6 years by 2006
  • Increase passenger growth by 1.5% per annum
  • Plug gaps in the commercial network with no residents more than 400m from bus stops
  • Maintain concessionary fares in real terms

north Wales have embraced local authority provision of shelters and bus bays since the 1990s (Terada, 2002).

The Transport Act 2000 granted local authorities powers to form Quality Bus Contracts (QBCs) restricting entry and changes to services, to prevent quality reductions pursuant on new competitors entering markets. Some authorities fear that QBCs may be offering excessive statutory monopoly powers to operators which, coupled with implementation delays, make QBPs more attractive. In 2003, QBCs were planned for Coventry, Eastbourne and Hastings. Edinburgh proposed integration with congestion charging but this initiative faltered, as authorities were required to submit documents to Traffic Commissioners 21 months prior to introduction. Dynamic bus markets reduce their attractiveness.

Southwest England incorporates a diverse economy including inland and coastal, upland and lowland areas. In this analysis, examples of QBPs are drawn mainly from Devon and Cornwall. Even after 1997, when Plymouth City and Torbay District Councils gained unitary status, Devon County Council remained responsible for managing a diverse transport environment. Examples considered here relate to urban environments in Torbay and Plymouth, and rural issues in Cornwall. See Table 1 for further details of the proportions of specific populations at risk of exclusion due to old age, residency in rural areas, or non car-owning households.

Some urban initiatives

In Torbay a large operator who operates some services locally proposed to develop a local bus depot in exchange for a QBC (Torbay District Council, 2002). The QBC proposed incorporating a suburban bus lane reliant on relocating on-street parking into a new off-street facility, and a dedicated city centre multi-occupancy lane. Fearing that concerns by local residents over increasing pressures on roadside parking might be
adversely reflected in local elections, Torbay Council declined the proposal. More recently, progress on minor infrastructure upgrades has been significant including additional bus stops, clearway restrictions and service improvements which have raised patronage (Torbay District Council, 2004).

Prior to QBPs, the Plymouth and South East Cornwall and Environs Transportation Study covering a 20 km radius travel to work area was informed by policy recommendations arising from regular meetings between inter alia bus operators and local authorities. Following granting of unitary authority status in 1997, Plymouth City Council extended these relationships to develop an informal QBP. Given revenue support for only 2% of bus miles locally, attempts to promote modal switching from private cars to buses were enacted through open or hidden support to commercial services (Bentley & Lynch, 2001). With local market shares shifting between a large national operator and the local municipal operator, the former actively sought a QBP, which Plymouth City Council supported. Vehicles purchased under the QBP will be capable of moving mobility impaired passengers, and meeting strict emission standards, on corridors delineated within the Transportation Study area. The officials interviewed felt that had QBPs not been developed other potential funding for promoting stricter vehicle emission controls or disability access initiatives would have generated substantially reduced levels of investment, and exacerbated exclusion.

Both operators favoured service co-operation through the QBP subject to provisions relating to external demand changes, effectively offering escape clauses. Minimum service frequencies were agreed. Operators agreed to supply the authority with commercially sensitive information in exchange for capital expenditure on northern corridor routes. Although their systems differed, the operators

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Table 3. Corlink Service 55 Quality Bus Partnership –– Obligations, targets & monitoringCornwall County Council will:

  • Operate a demand responsive transport (DRT) service for a minimum of three years
  • Provide automatic vehicle location (AVL) equipment for four buses
  • Provide real time passenger information system
  • Upgrade bus stops and shelters. Changes to highway layout and lay-bys at bus stops will be agreed with the bus operator

The operator will:

  • Contribute the capital cost and operate four new super low floor buses. The buses will be dedicated to operation on the QBP route for a minimum of 5 years. If the vehicles are cascaded, they must be allocated within Cornwall for a minimum of 7 years
  • Improve the timetable and frequency to at least the agreed minimum specification (an hourly frequency on weekday daytimes) and extend the service. They will facilitate connection of the QBP route with the DRT at agreed locations
  • Reduce standard fares
  • Ensure that all staff on the route take part in customer care training

Targets

  • Lost mileage will be no more than 0.5%
  • Punctuality will be at least 95%
  • Parties will seek to increase passenger numbers by 15% in year one and 5% thereafter
  • AVL will be operationally available for at least 90% of services
  • Real time information systems will be operational for at least 99.5% of services
  • The incidence of complaints should not exceed one per month

Monitoring

  • The operator will supply details of patronage drawn from electronic ticket machine data to the QBP management
  • On mode shift, QBP management will arrange for travel behaviour surveys annually, funded by CCC
  • QBP management will arrange perception surveys annually, funded by CCC
  • The operator and CCC will maintain records of complaints received by telephone, letter, email or personal call

reached common training agreements. To promote a stable bus market, dates for timetable changes were co­ordinated but dates of fare increases could not be co­ordinated. All agreed that powers to levy workplace-parking charges should remain and investment in low floor buses and bus boarders should proceed. Although general fare increases below inflation were not agreed, rises were pegged to inflation rates. QBPs in Plymouth had spanned objectives for fares, frequency, some bus priority, accessibility and passenger growth targets. In return prior to the bus strategy, Plymouth City Council had funded 7.2 km of bus priority lane, four bus gateways and two bus only links, costing £1.8 million. Following local elections in 1999 stronger support for groups representing car users resulted in policy reversals including partial closure of a bus lane.

The bus strategy (Plymouth City Council, 2000) agreed by both operators, Plymouth City Council and the National Federation of Bus Users, underpinned the local QBP shown in table 1. Later, when one operator refused to resubmit a commitment or conduct negotiations at the local operating subsidiary level rather than group headquarters, Plymouth City Council considered the QBP commitment from one operator as a commitment without substance and no longer promoted developments. The operator was also reluctant to declare patronage data, complicating
monitoring. In a later project on the leisure route crossing the River Tamar by ferry and hugging the spectacular coastline to the golden sands of Whitsand Bay in east Cornwall, Plymouth City Council sought a QBP combined with central government subsidies from the Urban Bus Challenge that regulates the usage of funds and monitoring.

Cornwall

Cornwall County Council (CCC) developed QBPs to implement bus policies requiring minimal public investment, commencing in March 1999 (Cornwall County Council, 2000) with route T34, a bus service linking Helston and Culdrose with connecting train services at Redruth. This involved CCC, an independent local operator, the Countryside Agency, Railtrack and three train operating companies with funding grants for two buses from the Countryside Agency, the European Regional Development Fund and the Rural Bus Challenge. The project included bus to rail connections, waiting and interchange facilities at the railway station, through ticketing between rail and bus, bus information in the national rail timetable and low floor buses with bicycle racks. Given that other initiatives have also delivered improved rail transfer facilities at bus termini, arguably this project perhaps should not rely on QBP agreements, but this approach explicitly sought to promote inclusion.

Terada & Dinwoodie: Promoting inclusion through Bus Quality Partnerships in southwest England

World Transport Policy & Practice, Volume 10, Number 4, (2004) 8–14                                                                     13

Figure 2 – Delivery of Public Transport Schemes 2002/03 http://www.cornwall.gov.uk/transport/ltpjuly03/map2.htm

50 km

By mid 2003, further implementations included routes 55 and T1. Taken together, one of the first three projects engaged a large national operator, and two engaged a local operator. Further plans propose to engage each medium sized bus operator in at least one project in the county. The participation of independent operators in QBPs is noteworthy, based on personal relationships and exchanges of opinions between local authorities and operators, characteristic of early informal QBPs elsewhere. Following projects T34 and T1, projects were combined with demand responsive feeder transport services known as Corlink. These secured connections with phone and ride minibuses or taxis and main line large buses using an Automatic Vehicle Location information system. The feeder transport services are subsidised under the Rural Bus Challenge programme. A Corlink Service 55 QBP is shown in table 2. The QBP includes CCC, a large national operator, three train operating companies and a local bus and taxi operator providing feeder services.

The operator improved their timetable and set promotional fares in December 2001, whilst CCC set up a Corlink Demand Responsive Transport Booking Line in Truro. The operator extended the service in March and CCC improved stops and shelters between March and September 2002. The QBP formally commenced in
June, with the operator providing new buses and enhanced customer care training for drivers in July alongside CCC operation of Demand Responsive Transport services, Automatic Vehicle Location and other systems. The agreement will end in February 2007.

As each bus operator sought Corlink project implementation on a route extending its operating area into rival territory, highly subsidised feeder transport drew custom from rivals. However this action is promoting competition as all QBPs in Cornwall are tendered services.

The Cornwall LTP sought enhanced bus services based on QBPs creating 12% more passenger journeys by bus, with QBP routes accessible by 25% of the population and with 50% of users satisfied. In promoting inclusion, the LTP also sought 30% more bus stops adapted for easy access and 100% more easy access buses operating within Cornwall by 2005, and sited 13 key strategic bus corridors to be incorporated as the QBP develops (Cornwall County Council, 2000).

Conclusions

In 2003, Plymouth City Council successfully bid for Urban Bus Challenge funding to upgrade six vehicles on service 81, the Whitsand Bay Route, cementing a

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relationship built up with the operator prior to QBP initiatives. QBP implementations typically seek Urban Bus Challenge and Rural Bus Challenge subsidies to ensure continual quality improvement beyond the three-year subsidy period. This bid was no exception, with the authority requiring a commitment to quality improvement from the operator spanning the seven-year period of investment returns, guaranteeing no redeployment of vehicles purchased to other routes. QBPs implemented by CCC involving Rural Bus Challenge funds prohibited vehicle route switching for five years, but permitted movements within the county in the last two years. The seven-year QBP period is about half the service life of a full size bus in England. To stipulate that operators must deploy QBP vehicles on designated routes for their entire life would deny them flexibility to respond where vehicles no longer match route characteristics, but this approach guarantees at least a degree of inclusion in the medium-term. Particularly in urban areas with many QBP routes, some flexibility is also important, but the number of QBP routes is also necessarily limited.

These examples show that when viewed as an ongoing process rather than single events, Quality

References

Bentley, R., & Lynch, J. (2001) ‘Using bus service subsidy to develop the network’ Municipal Engineer Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Vol. 145, pp.29–36.

CfIT (2002) Public Subsidy for the Bus Industry Commission for Integrated Transport, London. http://www.cfit.gov.uk/reports/psbi/cfit/index.htm  Cornwall County Council (2000) Cornwall Local Transport Plan 2001-2006 Cornwall County Council, Truro. http://www.cornwall.gov.uk/Transport/  Ltp/Ltphome.htm

DfT (2003) Bulletin of Public Transport Statistics: Great Britain, 2003 edition Department for Transport, London. http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/  dfttransstats/documents/downloadable/dfttranssta ts 032973.pdf

Dobbs, B. (2000) Local Authority Bus Contracts; Price, Expenditure and Competition Survey 2000 Association of Transport Co-ordinating Officers, Penrith.

Office of Fair Trading (2003) The Transport Acts: Guidance on the Competition Test Office of Fair Trading, London. http://www.oft.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/6184B1FC-49D7-4F42-BA87-34453548969A/0/oft393.pdf Plymouth City Council (2000) Plymouth Local Transport Plan 2001-2005: Bus Strategy Plymouth City Council, Plymouth. http://www.plymouth.gov.uk/content-1427
Partnerships can satisfy objectives common to both local governments and operators. Many arose initially from established relationships between these parties and are very effective when they merely extend them. Ongoing discussion enables LTPs to incorporate inclusive corporate corridor strategy plans and dynamic markets favour flexible demand responsive partnerships. Monitoring is necessary to ensure best value for money and successful attainment of local accessibility, inclusion and environmental objectives.

Some issues were beyond the scope of this work, including consideration of the route characteristics that most favour successful partnerships. In urban areas, partnerships appear to be most successful on routes with commercial services operating at high volumes, contrasting with successful implementations on long distance routes in rural areas with the potential to deliver reduced subsidies. Whilst the confidentiality of commercially sensitive passenger data necessarily denies quantification of measures of inclusion, future research could more readily attempt to monitor the long-term stability and viability of both relationships between operators and authorities and the impacts on patronage and value for money.

Preston, J. (2003) ‘A ‘thoroughbred’ in the making? The bus industry under Labour’ In Docherty, I. & Shaw, J. (eds) A New Deal for Transport? RGS-IBG Book Series, Blackwell, Oxford.

Social Exclusion Unit (2003) Making the Connections: Final Report on Transport and Social Exclusion SEU, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, London. http://www.socialexclusionunit.gov.uk

TAS (2001) Quality Bus Partnerships: Good Practice Guide Transport Advisory Service, Preston.

____ (2002) Monitoring Quality Bus Partnerships: A Report for the Department for Transport, Volume1, The Evidence Transport Advisory Service, Preston. Terada, K. (2002) The Deregulation of the Bus Industry Basu Sangyo no Kiseikanwa, Nihon-Hyoron-Sha, Tokyo.

Torbay District Council (2002) Local Transport Plan: Annual Progress Report 2002 Torbay District Council, Torbay.

Torbay District Council (2004) Local Transport Plan: Annual Progress Report 2004 Torbay District Council, Torbay. http://www.torbay.gov.uk/ltp-annualprogress-2004-part1.pdf

Transport 2000 & CPRE (2000) The Rural

Thoroughbred: Buses in the Countryside Transport 2000 & Council for the Preservation of Rural England, London.

The ‘YOU-move.nrw’ campaign – New partnerships for youth-oriented and environmentally friendly mobility management

Oscar Reutter

Address for correspondence

Oscar Reutter

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Transport Division, Wuppertal, Germany

<oscar.reutter@wupperinst.org>                                                                                           http://www.wupperinst.org

Abstract

In the summer of 2002 the Wuppertal Institute evaluated the YOU-move.nrw campaign which was organised in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The campaign is a ‘soft factor’ policy designed to promote environmentally friendly modes of transport. It is targeted at the youth market to encourage environmentally friendly modes of transport and to increase public awareness of sustainable mobility.

Keywords

North Rhine-Westphalia, teenage travel, YOU-move.nrw, youth transport

Background

Young people form an important target group for mobility management; in the process of growing up, mobility patterns which have a long term influence on the transport behaviour of future adults are developed and established. Many teenagers acquire a driver’s licence on their 18th birthday and then switch from using environmentally friendly transport modes to travelling by car. With this change in behaviour, they stop being regular public transport customers but contribute to environmental pollution by individual motorised traffic. Moreover, youths are endangered by an above average tendency to be involved in collisions due to their inexperience in driving.

Objectives of the campaign

Against this background, the campaigns had four objectives:

  1. Awareness raising among youths about transport issues

The campaign would demonstrate to the public and decision-makers in politics, administration and transport companies, that young people are an important target group for sustainable mobility management and especially for public transport.

  1. Encouraging youth multi-modality

The campaign would motivate young people to keep to their familiar modes of environmentally friendly transport and to use the car in addition to, not instead of, public transport. The idea of ‘multi-modality’ would be more strongly embodied in their
consciousness. Additionally, their customer loyalty towards public transport would be strengthened by pointing out the positive qualities of environmentally friendly modes of transport.

  1. Youth participation and empowerment

The campaign would demonstrate, in what way youths could successfully get involved with concept and product development for sustainable mobility management so that they would be provided with more mobility options. It would be pointed out how they themselves might encourage and enable the development of such projects which meet their youth-specific needs.

  1. Exemplary youth-oriented transport projects

The campaign would illustrate on the basis of good, practical examples, how youth-oriented, eventful and environmentally sound travel projects might be designed, such that these examples achieve a long­term impact.

Designing the campaign as a contest

From May to October 2002, following two years of preparation, the YOU-move.nrw campaign was carried out as a contest in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The objective was to put into action as many exemplary youth-oriented ideas, concepts and projects for environmentally friendly modes of transport as possible. The organisers wanted to have about 100 projects for the contest.

Realistic and practical projects were sought, but it was also possible to submit drafts of ideas or visions. In all contributions to the contest a substantial improvement in environmental quality or road safety had to be evident – in addition to having a youth focus. The projects should be developed either by the youths themselves (bottom-up strategy) or by transport professional (from industry or government) in close co-operation with young people (top-down strategy).

For the contest, the target group of young people was defined as being aged 15 to 25. All youths living in North Rhine-Westphalia were eligible to take part in the contest – as individuals, youth groups, or as school classes supported by their teachers. Several valuable awards were advertised for the contest, partly

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Figure 1. Flyer used in the YOU-move.nrw campaign

financed out of the campaign budget and partly donated by external sponsors.

The contest was promoted via three distinct media:

  • an active press campaign by the campaign organisers
  • an internet address for the campaign http://www.you-move.nrw.de
  • advertising through the networks of the project’s steering committee members; this was supported by a special campaign flyer (Figure 1).

Organisation of the campaign

The YOU-move.nrw campaign was substantially supported by the transport policy of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The concept was developed, prepared and carried out by an uniquely broad coalition of honorary active institutions and transport professionals at state level.

The steering committee of the campaign was set up by organisations active in the areas of transportation, environment and road safety and by the transport companies. The practical realisation of the campaign was managed across the state by Werner Reh of the Bund für Umwelt und Naturschutz Nordrhein-Westfalen (BUND-NRW, the Alliance for Environment and Conservation).
In detail, the following organisations worked together in the central steering committee:

  • key transport and environmental NGOs in North Rhine-Westphalia – Allgemeine Deutschen Fahrrad Club (ADFC, General German Bicycle Club), Pro Bahn NRW (representing passengers), Verkehrsclub Deutschland NRW (VCD, German Transportation Club), and BUND-NRW;
  • selected youth organisations in North Rhine-Westphalia – namely the State Student Council, the Youth Sport Association and the youth division of BUND;
  • key transportation companies in North Rhine-Westphalia – Verband Deutscher Verkehrsunternehmen (VDV, Union of German Transportation Companies), Deutsche Bahn (DB, German Railways) as the largest transport company, Verkehrsverbund Rhein-Ruhr (VRR, Rhine-Ruhr Transport System) as the largest NorthRhine-Westphalian transport system, Rheinbahn AG (an extremely demand responsive local transport company), and Stadtmobil, one of the larger car sharing organisations active in several North Rhine-Westphalian cities;
  • relevant user and consumer councils – Nutzer- und Verbraucherverbände die Verbraucherzentrale

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Table 1. Set of criteria used to evaluate contributions to the ‘YOU-move.nrw’ contestNo. Criteria                                                                            Explanation

1 Originality, Innovation, Creativity

2 Complexity of the project, presentation competence

3 State of realisation

4 Use of environmentally friendly modes of transport, integration of youth-specific means of transport in the public transport

5 Meeting youth needs                                                       Attractiveness of the appearance, modern means of transport,

emotional valuation, physical activity, ‘fun factor’, self-awareness/ risk, increase of acceptance for environmentally friendly modes of transport, improvement of young customers´ bond

6 Environmental Compatibility – Energy consumption Resource consumption, emissions of CO2, air quality, land

utilisation, noise prevention

7 Road Safety

8 Designing competence, participation                              New co-operations or networks, co-operation with professionals,

acceptance for the realisation of the projects

9 Social contacts, social behaviour/integration                  Contribution for an improvement of the social life

10 Economic efficiency                                                        Profitability, cost effectiveness, feasibility

NRW (the Consumer Office), Landes-verband der Körper- und Mehrfachbehinderten NRW (the association of the physically disabled), Landesverkehrswacht (the state traffic watch) and Rheinischer Gemeindeunfallversicherungsverband (RGUVV, school transport insurance association);

  • the City and Community Council of North Rhine-Westphalia; and
  • the Ministry of Transport North Rhine-Westphalia, represented by the marketing agency CP-Compartner.

The steering committee and the central campaign direction received ongoing advice from the Wuppertal Institute, the Research Institute for Regional and Urban Development of the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia, and the Heinrich Böll Foundation. The Wuppertal Institute also took over the accompanying scientific research of the campaign on behalf of the BUND and with support of the Ministry of Transport of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Main campaign decisions were reached by consensus of the steering committee which met monthly from December 2000 to November 2002. It dealt with the questions of contents and organisation, such as how to address the target group, press work, marketing concept, make-up of the contest judging panel, and the preparation of the launch and closing events. Additionally, it was responsible for the development of the time schedule and set of procedures, and supervised the direction of the managing campaign. The members of the steering committee used their particular networks to promote the campaign and to initiate and assist contributions to the contest. Lastly,
members of the steering committee were among the judges of the contest.

Upon agreeing an outline accord with the re-elected red-Green state government in 2000, the campaign received substantial support from the Ministry of Transport. In addition, there were two discussion forums in the Dusseldorf Parliament with the youth and traffic policy representatives of the political parties; about the rough concept in February 2001 and the detailed concept in October of that year. Through these, political backing for the campaign was confirmed and financial support was agreed. Based on this, the Ministry of Transportation of the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (Public Transport Finance Division) supported the preparation and realisation of the campaign, including accompanying research, with more than € 250,000. At the end of the campaign, representatives of the Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Christian Democrats helped to select the winning projects.

The success of the campaign lay in the close co­operation among the various participants in the steering committee: the professional participants (in politics, community administration, the transportation ministry, public transport companies and research institutes) and the honorary activists in the many and very different non-governmental organisations.

Key factors for success in this co-operation were:

  • ongoing political commitment,
  • sufficient personal and financial resources,
  • a good working relationship between professional and honorary members of the campaign network,
  • well-balanced teamwork with top-down and

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Table 2. Winners of the ‘YOU-move.nrw’ contestPrize Category                                                                            Winning Project                                                         Winner of First Prize
Individual Prizes

1 Laptop (€1200)                                           Local Transport Improvements in           Karl Ansgar Seng. This 13 year old

Wermelskirchen: remodel the central bus station, renew the train line to Remscheid, improve service on local buses.
student, on his own initiative, evaluated the local transport supply in his home town and formulated suggestions for alleviating the problems he discovered.

2 Top Mobile Phone with MP3 (€450)          Survey among young customers

3 Digital Camera                                           Mobile Angels

Group Prizes

1 Trip to Nice (€2750)                                   Kalletal event bus                                    The members of the Kalletal Youth

Parliament developed a concept for a night bus which was extended to an event bus line. Additionally, they fostered the construction of a new skating facility.

2 Adventure tour to the Alps (€600)              Sportline Herne

3 5 bags from Ortlieb                                    Night Express Bus NE 14

Special Road Safety Prize: a trip to         Safeguarding sports facilities in Sinsen

Hamburg to ‘The Lion King’, plus backpacks

Class Prizes

1 Trip to London (€2300)                               Proposal to remodel Karolingerplatz Students of the Max Weber College in

Stop                                                         Düsseldorf. The students generated
three alternatives for the redesign of this stop which was too small and unsafe. Following consultation in the neighbourhood and with local businesses, they took their proposals to the local authority.

2 €750                                                            Rolling Dream-Bus Revue

3 Trip on the tram and a big meal (€750) Safeguarding & improving ways to Hennef school

4 Special Road Safety Prize from the          Safeguarding & improving ways to Hochdahl school

RGUVV: a trip to ‘Miami Nights’

5 Excursion & Visitor packs to Schalke ⎧Eco-Audit Student Mobility

Sports Arena                                          ⎨Marler Road Safety Day, 2002

⎩School Excursion by regular buses

Special Transport Company Prize
(a day trip to an adventure park)
Stadtwerke Dortmund (The cool bus and railway show), Rheinbahn (vehicle attendant project), Stadtwerke Remscheid (vehicle attendant project), EVAG, PESAG

bottom-up strategies,

  • solving topic-related problems and conflicts in the work process in a tolerant and success-oriented manner, and
  • a very high personal commitment from all participants.

Results of the contest

At the deadline on 31st October, 2002, 97 projects had been submitted. Of these, 72 projects were approved and evaluated more closely. They dealt with entirely different topic fields and were in various stages of
realisation – from the idea to the implemented and finished project. Many of the entries were aimed at youth-oriented public transport (e.g. Night and Disco buses, event or sport lines, improvement of bus stops) and new means of public transportation. The positive qualities of public transport – especially important for young people – were picked up and the contestants tried to combine ‘fun and entertainment’ aspects with public transport via suitable events. Several projects had youth-oriented suggestions concerning design and tickets for public transport; others suggested

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Figure 2. Before and After comparison of the frequency of use of public transport, bicycle and car by the interviewed participants in the YOU-move.nrw campaign

Public transport–before Public transport–after Bicycle–before Bicycle–after Car–before Car–after

0                     20                    40                      60                    80                       100

nearly daily                                     several times a week               several times a month

once a month maximum                never                                        no answer

Source: own survey in summer 2002 (before-interviews) and winter 2002/2003 (after-interviews), N=58

improvements to information about the accessibility of youth-relevant places, leisure and sport events, and event guides.

A series of projects focussed on cycling for journeys to/from school and for leisure, and on newer modes of youth transport such as inline skates or kickboards. Road safety issues met with a high response: many proposals were aimed at improving road safety for school journeys, while others suggested having extra personnel on school buses.Only a handful of projects were submitted by individuals or by small youth groups. Most projects were from ‘institutions’. A large proportion of the projects were developed by school classes or courses, which had dealt with the topics of youth/mobility/environment/safety during their curriculum. Further project initiators were youth parliaments, youth sport groups and transport companies which developed mobility concepts for and with young people.

The Wuppertal Institute whittled down 72 assessable contributions to a range of 28 award-worthy projects. For this, all contributions to the contest were evaluated on the basis of a set of 10 criteria specifically chosen for this purpose (see Table 1). These were collected from an initial set of 45 individual criteria.

Out of the 28 projects, the contest judges selected 19 ‘winners’ and presented them with valuable prizes (see Table 2). Many other projects were given consolation prizes (e.g. trophies, bags, T-Shirts, cycle accessories, games) in appreciation of their commitment.
The main awards were presented to the winners at the closing event in November 2002, at the Max Weber College in Dusseldorf, the state capital. All winners received a statue in the design of the YOU-move logo in addition to their prize. More than 200 youths active in the campaign from throughout North Rhine-Westphalia, the members of the steering committee and senior representatives of the Ministry of Transport took part in the closing event – in all there were about 250 guests.

Media Response

While the YOU-move.nrw campaign did not receive wide coverage in the media, what coverage it received was favourable. As the campaign was specific to the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, it only appeared in North Rhine-Westphalian media – basically in the daily newspapers. In contrast to the predecessor campaign ‘Change the mind – Change the mode! New Mobility in North Rhine-Westphalia’ in 1998 , this time the media response was considerably lower. During the seven months before the opening event (April 22nd 2002) until shortly after the closing event (November 22nd 2002), 44 different pieces of writing relating to the campaign were published in the newspapers: 32 articles, 9 short notices, 2 reports by the news agency ddp nrw and one report in a weekly journal. The 32 articles appeared 67 times and the 9 notices were seen 85 times in different daily newspapers.

For local newspapers, it was important to be able to focus on local projects in their articles. This was rather

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Figure 3. Change of attitudes to means of transport of the interviewed young contest participants at the end of the YOU-move.nrw campaign

On feet Bycicle Motorbicycle/moped Car Street car, city railway, tube Bus Train “Kickboard/Skateboard/Inlineskates”

0                 20                 40                 60                 80                   100

more negative than before                 same as before                 more positive than before              no answer

Source: own survey in winter 2002/2003 (after-interviews), N=58

difficult during the time of the campaign as many projects had not reached fruition. Another reason for the rather low response in the press may be due to the combination of youth issues and and transport matters, as the latter is perceived to be of little interest to the youth public.

The design of the campaign as a contest had a positive impact on the tenor of the coverage in the local media. Many articles were about concrete projects in the near surroundings of the reporters; these were usually picked up and presented in a favourable manner. Additionally, the associations and companies forming the steering committee promoted the campaign through their own media relations and this helped to positively influence the resonance of media reports.

Effect of the campaign on participating youth

The effect of the campaign on participating youth was determined through interviews (before-after comparison) with typical contest participants. 84 youths from 8 representative project groups were interviewed. The interviews concentrated on mobility behaviour, attitude towards mobility and involvement in and assessment of the campaign.

Due to the age structure (81% of the interviewees were under 18 years at the time of the interviews), local transport and bike are the modes of transportmostly used by the youngsters. More than half of the interviewed youths use buses and trains almost every day (51.9%). Two-thirds cycle almost everyday (43.0%) or at least several times a week (21.5%).

Nonetheless, the car plays an important role as a
mode of transport for these youths. Almost three-quarters use a car several times a week (50.6%) or almost daily (22.8%). They usually drive with someone else as most of them do not hold a driver´s licence yet. Only 5% of the interviewees do not use a car at all. Most of the youths (79.7%, with 13.9% who did not answer this question) assured the researchers that they want to pass the driving test and obtain a driver´s licence.

In the before-after comparison, there is no crucial change in the mobility behaviour of the young interviewees, as a consequence of participation in the contest. On the other hand, there are evident changes in attitude towards mobility among the youths.

Public transport is rated more highly in the after interviews, especially with regard to how environmentally friendly it is. Some aspects of the image of cars was lower in the after interviews (e.g. environmental costs, stress, quality of life). The campaign struck a chord among youths for a transport policy oriented towards environmentally friendly modes of transport. Admittedly, the image loss of the car is far less than the image gain of public transport.

In the after interviews, the considerable importance of networks, contacts and co-operation partners – who acted as contact persons for the youths during the contest and supported them with the cultivation of their projects – were articulated. The development of such networks needed an intensive mediation between the professional actors and the youths; indeed, the projects would not have succeeded without such networking.

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The most popular expectations with which the interviewees took part in the contest were the cultivation of their projects and their increased awareness that they are an important consumer group of environmentally friendly modes of transport. However, for a large proportion of the interviewees, these expectations were only partly fulfilled.

More than 50% of the youths ascertained their intention to take part again in a comparable campaign. Most of them enjoyed the participation and found it interesting. Over half of the youths stated that it was of great importance to them to be able to bring their abilities into the contest. For another 36%, this was of less importance.

As a result of their participation in the contest, a majority of the interviewed youths became generally aware of the political decision making processes and particularly aware of traffic, transport and environmental issues.

Final assessment

As a whole, the YOU-move.nrw campaign was seen as a great success: across North Rhine-Westphalia over 70 innovative projects were developed and partly realised in this program for youth-oriented and environmentally friendly mobility, and the issue of environmentally sound mobility for the youth was successfully communicated in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. This success was managed by a uniquely broad coalition of professional experts and activists from many NGOs working together in the steering committee to develop and administer the campaign.

The campaign was mentioned in many local and regional newspapers of North Rhine-Westphalia and received much positive coverage in the media. The majority of the youths who took part in the project became aware of the need for an environment-oriented transport policy and their perception and assessment of public transport has improved. While their real mobility behaviour did not change significantly in the short period of the campaign, the campaign increased awareness among the participants towards multi­modal travel rather than mere car-oriented attitudes.

There was an increase in awareness among decision makers in politics, community administration,
transportation companies and in public about the importance of an environmentally sound transport policy for the target group ‘youth’. With many successful examples, the campaign demonstrated how youths can effectively get involved in concept and product development for a youth oriented and environmentally sound mobility. It remains to be seen to what extend the successful projects might act as role models such that the campaign achieves sustainable positive knock-on effects.

Acknowledgements

This paper was presented at the New Partnerships workshop on The need for new structures, partnerships and interaction for implementation at ECOMM 2003, 7th European Conference on Mobility Management, Karlstad, Sweden.

References

BMVBW (2001) Verkehr in Zahlen 2002/2003 Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen, Hamburg .

Limbourg, M., Raithel, J. & Reiter, K. (2000) ‘Jugendliche im Straßenverkehr’ in Raithel, J (Hrsg.) Risikoverhalten im Jugendalter Leske & Budrich, Opladen.

Reutter, O. & Beik, U. (2000) ‘Kampagne Umdenken, Umsteigen – Neue Mobilität in NRW’ in Stadt Münster/Europäische Kommission (Hrsg.): Schnittstelle im Mobilitätsmangement – Neue Kooperationen, Techniken, Lösungen. Dortmunder Vertrieb für Bau- und Planungsliteratur. Dortmund 2000, S. 180 – 183.

Reutter, O., Beik, U., Böge, S. & Ruschenburg, T. (1999) ‘Kampagne Umdenken Umsteigen – Neue Mobilität in NRW’ – Dokumentation und Wirkungsanalyse – Kurzfassung. Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie GmbH im Wissenschaftszentrum in Nordrhein-Westfalen. Wuppertal.

Reutter, O., Dalkmann, H. & Bernhardt, P. (2003) ‘Die Kampagne YOU-Move.nrw – Ergebnisse der Begleitforschung’ Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie, Wuppertal. Unveröffentlichter Endbericht, deutsch; mit ausführlichen Literaturangaben.

An evaluation of the traffic and financial performance of the MRT-3 light-rail/metro line in Manila

Marius de Langen, Edwin Alzate & Hillie Talens

Address for correspondence

Marius de Langen

Assistant Professor Transportation, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands

<m.delangen@unesco-ihe.org>                              http://www.unesco-ihe.org/vmp/articles/contentsHomePage.html

Abstract

This paper documents the performance of the Metro Rail Transit Line 3 (MRT-3) light rail line in Manila.

  • Capacity utilisation is around 100% in the peak, 60% during the daytime and 30% in the evening hours.
  • MRT-3 has not attracted car drivers. Of MRT-3 passengers, 99% do not have their own car

available for the trip. However, 27% made their trips as car passengers before.

  • The dominant user is 25–40 years (73%), middle income (66%), 52% female and 48% male. Most trips are for work, school or business (82%).
  • Travellers are very satisfied with the level of service.
  • Utilisation was highly sensitive to the tariff. Full capacity utilisation was only reached after fare reduction to just above the bus fare.
  • Fare revenue is structurally insufficient to recover costs (2002: 20%).
  • Profit on real estate development linked to MRT stations is high, due to their good accessibility. This, plus value increase of other real estate along the MRT (for the same reason) outweighs the total cost of line construction and operation.
  • MRT-3 is financially attractive for the Metro Rail Transit Corporation. The Philippine government carries all operational risk and receives a modest share of real estate revenues. Subsidy up to 2023 will probably be around 50%.

Keywords

Light rail evaluation, light rail and land use, Manila, Mass Rapid Transit, public transport, modal shift, transport in developing countries

Introduction

Aim of the paper

The paper documents the performance of the recently completed Metro Rail Transit Line 3 (MRT-3)

The currencies used in this paper are the Philippine Peso and the US dollar. 100 = $1.803

Edwin Alzate, Philippine Export-Import Credit Agency, Makati City, Philippines http://www.philexim.gov.ph

Hillie Talens, CROW, Ede, The Netherlands http://www.crow.nl
in the Manila metropolitan area. It does so from the technical performance and the passenger point of view as well as from the financial viewpoint. Its aims are to investigate whether in the Manila case new light rail/metro lines, such as the MRT-3, can be constructed and successful in transport terms (attractive for travellers, highly utilised). It then investigates whether such lines can be financially successful for private investors and operators as well as for the public interest (represented by the government – in this case the national Department of Transportation and Communications, DOTC).

Method

In 2002/2003 a study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the MRT-3 line (Alzate, 2003). The study was based on a survey of MRT passengers in November and December 2002 (504 respondents), data about traffic in the Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA) corridor in the 1997-2002 period (MMURTRIP, 1998; DPWH-TEC, 2003), and ridership and financial data concerning the actual MRT operation (source DOTC, 2003).

The MRT-3 in the Manila metropolitan area

Like most megacities around the world, Metro Manila suffers from serious traffic congestion and the associated accessibility and environmental problems. According to the Metro Manila Urban Transport Integration Study (MMUTIS, 1999), roads in the city have become more congested, commuting time and distance have grown further, in-vehicle congestion in public transport increased and comfort level decreased, air pollution worsened (largely attributed to transport), and accidents increased. The general urban transport situation is characterised by a shortage of infrastructure, poor road maintenance, inadequate traffic and vehicle management, undisciplined drivers and pedestrians, and uncontrolled roadside activities and land use.

Among Metro Manila’s major roads, EDSA carries the highest traffic. It is the backbone of Metro Manila’s road transportation system and a very high volume road. Daily (14-hour) 2-way traffic exceeds 100,000 passenger car units (2 x 5 lanes) over the whole section between the South Super Highway and East

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Table 1. Profile of MRT UsersTotal

MRT Users by Age

AM Peak PM Peak Non-peak
1)  < 20 45 9% 17 13% 15 7% 14 8%
2)  21-40 370 73% 98 75% 142 69% 130 77%
3)  41-60 89 18% 16 12% 49 24% 25 15%
504 100% 130 100% 205 100% 169 100%
MRT Users by Gender
1)  Male 240 48% 65 50% 96 47% 79 47%
2)  Female 264 52% 65 50% 109 53% 90 53%
Total 504 100% 130 100% 205 100% 169 100%
MRT Users by Family Income (PhP/month)
1)  Under 15,000 161 32% 41 32% 62 30% 58 34%
2)  15,000-59,999 331 66% 87 67% 138 67% 106 63%
3)  60,000 or greater 12 2% 2 2% 5 2% 5 3%
Total 504 100% 130 100% 205 100% 169 100%

Avenue, rising to almost 150,000 in the Ortigas/Shaw area. Depending on the section, around 10%–13 % of the vehicles (25%–30% of PCUs) are buses (standard large bus), carrying around 70% of all persons travelling in the corridor (car = 70% of PCUs, 30% of persons; average car occupancy = 2.5) (MMURTRIP, 1998). Jeepneys (smaller public transport vehicles) are not allowed on this road; their exclusion is enforced effectively. On most sections, buses utilise 2 out of the 5 traffic lanes. Reliable records of the maximum hourly number of bus passengers in one direction are not available. Existing data suggest a peak hourly capacity of 600–700 buses in one direction, carrying more than 60,000 passengers. Compared to dedicated bus lane capacities reported from other cities around the world, this is a remarkable performance despite the seemingly chaotic appearance of the bus traffic (20,000 passengers per hour in the peak direction is generally considered an efficient performance for a single dedicated bus lane).

By comparison, the current maximum capacity of the MRT line is 24,000 passengers per hour in one direction (20 trains per hour, 1200 passengers per train), which can still be increased to 36,000 passengers per hour by running more carriages per train.

The Metro Rail Transit Line 3 (MRT-3) was constructed with the objective of alleviating the worsening traffic conditions and air pollution problem along EDSA. The report on which the decision to construct the line was based (J.P. Morgan, 1997) estimates that it could initially carry more than 450,000 passengers per day, expandable to a maximum of 900,000 passengers per day by enlarging the train vehicle fleet. However, data presented later in the paper demonstrate that the actual maximum possible number of daily passengers is around 25-40% lower.
Aimed at providing an economical, efficient and comfortable mass transport system, the MRT-3 was envisioned to eventually replace buses as the dominant mode of public transport along EDSA. In retrospect this appears to have been an unrealistic vision, taking into account the actual passenger carrying capacities of both modes and the increase of traffic in the corridor after MRT-3 completion, due to both diverted and generated traffic.

Car users were also expected to shift to the MRT-3 due to shorter travel time. Traffic conditions along EDSA were expected to improve with the predicted reduction in vehicle numbers.

Details of the MRT-3 Line

The MRT-3 is located, generally, within the existing median of EDSA and was constructed in two phases. Phase 1, which started operations in December 1999, has 13 stations and a total length of 16.9 km extending from North Avenue in Quezon City to Taft Avenue in Pasay City. Phase 2 (still under negotiation, start of construction expected in 2005) will provide a 5.1 km extension of the MRT line from North Avenue toward Monumento Circle in Caloocan City. Most of the MRT-3 is elevated, almost 2 km and two stations are underground and around 2 km and two stations are at grade. All road crossings are grade-separated.

The line is part of the envisioned Mass Rapid Transit network for Metro Manila (LRT, light rail on fully grade-separated infrastructure). This network consists of radial lines (LRT Line 1, 2, and 4) and a circumferential line (LRT Line 3) (see Figure 1). Line 1 (14 km, 18 stations) has been in operation since 1985. The average daily number of passengers grew from around 200,000 in 1985 to around 400,000 at present. Line 2 partially opened in April 2003 with 4 stations and commenced full operation on 29th October 2004 (14 km, 11

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Figure 2. MTR-3 Line, Manila. View of the EDSA corridor from one of the stations

stations, planned maximum peak capacity per direction 40,000 passengers per hour).

The initial intention of the government of the Philippines was that a private consortium would build and operate the line as a Build-Operate-Transfer Agreement. However, during contract negotiations this was changed into a Build-Lease-Transfer (BLT) contract in which the DOTC is the operating party and takes the risk of insufficient revenues. The reason is that the consortium building the line was unwilling to take the risk that the fare revenue would be too low to recover the cost. They did probably not trust the study report in its prediction of the number of passengers and the fare these would be willing to pay. In retrospect this was a correct judgment, as the evaluation findings show. The evaluation findings also suggest that the financial importance of one element was not fully recognised by the government at the moment of contract negotiations, i.e. that of the revenue generated by real estate development and exploitation of the MRT-3 station sites.

Under the BLT Agreement, the Metro Rail Transit Corporation (MRTC), a private sector consortium composed of seven Filipino-owned companies, is responsible for designing, constructing, testing, commissioning and maintaining the system. Upon completion, MRTC leases the system for 25 years to the DOTC who will operate it, and MRTC (through Sumitomo/Mitsubishi) maintains it. The rolling stock
was purchased from the Czech republic. At the end of the 25-year lease period, the ownership of the system will be transferred to the government.

The initial project investment in construction and rolling stock ($655 million, rolling stock cost $88) was financed through 29% ‘equity’ (held by MRTC) and 71% debt financing. Payment by DOTC to MRTC is by means of an annual lease amount, covering all costs including those of train and track maintenance. The lease amount includes a fixed 15% annual return (after tax) on equity capital. The Net Present Value of the lease up to 2023 (in 1999 costs, at 10% interest) amounts to around $1,030 million.

DOTC’s revenue will come from two sources: (i) MRT fare revenues, and (ii) the payments from the BLT contractor (MRTC) for development rights at the stations and at the depot. In the report underpinning project approval, fare revenue was heavily overestimated through the combined result of a high estimate of passenger numbers and an assumed high fare. The contract signed in 1997 between DOTC and MRTC appears to be quite one-sided in its allocation of project risk. Market risk with respect to passenger fare revenue is taken completely by DOTC. On the other hand, the commercial development revenues that DOTC collects appear to be variable, in proportion to the magnitude of development pursued by the BLT contractor, but limited to a maximum value (unrelated to the actual commercial success of the development).

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Detailed analysis of the financial arrangements of the project was outside the scope of this study.

Technical performance evaluation

Summary of passenger survey results Profile of MRT Users

The survey results indicate that most of the MRT users (73%) are between 20 and 40 years of age. Only 9% are below 20 years old while 16% are between 41 and 60 years old. There is no significant difference in the age of users during the am and pm peaks and the non-peak period. The exception is during the pm peak wherein more people between 41 and 60 years old (24%) use the MRT compared to other periods of the day. The MRT travellers are a very stable group, the large majority of them use it 5 days per week.

The percentage of female MRT users is slightly higher than that of males (52% female and 48% male). The male to female ratio is almost the same during the am, pm, and non-peak periods.

The trip production rate for males is higher (2.50 vehicular trips per day) than that of females (2.00) (based on the MMUTIS data). However, it is expected that there are more male car owners/drivers than female, so the percentage of trips males make by public transport can be expected to be lower than that of females. Hence, taking into account that public transport accounts for about 70% of the total daily vehicular trips in Metro Manila, the survey finding about the percentages of male and female travellers is in line with expectations.

Most of the MRT users (about 66%) belong to the middle-income group, with a family income between

15,000 to 60,000 per month (around $270 – $1,100 per month). 32% belong to the lower income group (less than 15,000 family income per month) and only 2% belong to the high-income group (family monthly income greater than 60,000). (GDP per capita of the Philippines (2003) is $4,000; the 10% highest income category consumes 40% of the GDP).

Car Ownership among MRT users

41% of the respondents report that their household owns a car (95% confidence interval: 37% – 45%). This is in line with the finding that MRT users are mostly middle-class (in Metro Manila as a whole only 19% of households own a car). The percentage is almost the same during the different periods of the day.

However, of all those that indicated that their household owns a car, only 2% say that this car was actually available to them to make their trip, but that they preferred to travel by MRT (95% confidence interval: 0% – 4%). The overwhelming majority of all MRT travellers (99%) are public transport captives, that didn’t have a car available (that they could use at their own discretion) as an alternative mode of
travel for their trip. In most cases respondents indicate that other family members were utilising the car. In a few cases cars were undergoing repairs/ maintenance, or they indicate that the car was not available due to the ‘Unified Vehicular Volume Reduction Program’ (UVVRP, also known as the colour-coding scheme), which bans cars from all roads once a week, based on the vehicle’s registration number.

The finding that almost all MRT passengers are public transport captive means that no significant reduction in car use along EDSA can be expected in relation to the MRT becoming available. This is consistent with traffic counts along the corridor which, although sometimes influenced by changes in traffic management on certain sections and physical changes to intersections related to MRT-3, show no clear overall reduction in the volume of traffic after MRT-3 became fully operational.

Modal shift related to the MRT-3

Bus-to-MRT. The main modal shift created by the MRT-3 is from other public transport to MRT-3, mainly from bus. 67% (±6%) of the respondents indicate that previously their main mode of travel was by bus, 4% by taxi and 2% by jeepney. It is interesting to note that the large modal shift from bus to MRT-3 did not lead to a strong reduction in the number of buses plying the EDSA corridor. Reliable systematic traffic counts on key sections along EDSA during a range of years could not be retraced within the period available for this study (they may not exist at all). Sparse data that are available are inconclusive, but suggest a reduction by less than 10%. Reliable data on bus occupancy could also not be found (they may not exist at all), but casual observation of the bus traffic in November and December 2002 did not suggest a drastic reduction in bus occupancy. It is also unlikely that a significant reduction in bus occupancy would not have led the operators to reduce the number of buses.

The most probable explanation therefore is that a significant part of the MRT-3 trips are either diverted or generated traffic. This is consistent with the answers given by the respondents about their travel routes in the past. 62 % indicated that they did not travel along the same route in the EDSA corridor before the MRT line was opened. Unfortunately, a more detailed analysis of the change in route patterns after the MRT opened was not possible within the limited scope of this research.

Car passenger-to-MRT. One very interesting other modal shift took place. 27% (±6%) of respondents indicate that they used to make their trip as a passenger in the household car. The implication of this is that the average car occupancy in the corridor must have gone down, because more family members, the MRT option being available, opted to use the MRT

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instead of travelling in the family car; the advantage of this probably being that the others in the car (driver, other passengers) no longer had to make a detour to drop someone, and that the freedom in choosing the desired time of the day for making the trip increased for both parties. Unfortunately this possible outcome had not been anticipated in the survey design, so no questions were asked about the reasons for changing from being a household-car passenger to travelling by MRT.

Apparently, the MRT effect on car travel in practice was not the hoped-for modal shift car-to-MRT that would reduce the number of cars on the road, but a shift of car passengers to MRT, that only reduced car occupancy. One should add that, although no effect on the number of car trips appears to have occurred, it is possible that for those cars in which the number of passengers went down the trip became shorter, which might create a (very modest) reduction in total car traffic.

Assessment of the level of service

Generally, MRT users are satisfied with the level of service of the MRT and its facilities.

  • Fare Almost all respondents (99%) indicated that the current price level is fair. The remaining 1% said that the price is low (implying that they would be willing to pay more for the use of the MRT). However, one should be very careful with the interpretation of this finding. It has to be realised that the MRT fare has been reduced very significantly twice. The first reduction was by 35%, two months after the line opened, in reaction to the dramatically low number of passengers in the first month (the initial fare was around twice the bus fare). The second reduction was by another 15%, 5 months later (July 2000), but also included a change in fare structure, making longer distance trips very significantly cheaper. The MRT-fare at that moment is almost the same as the bus fare in the EDSA corridor. After the first price reduction the number of passengers doubled (but remained far below the expected number), while after the second price reduction the number of passengers grew by more than tripled (to almost 200,000/day). The later growth of the number of passengers, to 300,000 at the end of 2002, was gradual, and also relates to the last stations becoming available during that period.
  • Waiting time at stations The large majority of the respondents (93%, ±2%) said that the waiting time at MRT stations is fair, 7% consider it low. Less then 1% is dissatisfied, saying that waiting time is too long.
  • Travel time MRT users are generally satisfied with the travel time compared to other modes (e.g., bus,

car or taxi). About 53% of the respondents rate the travel time using MRT as very good, 46% as good, 1% as fair. The high level of satisfaction with the travel time reflects reality: travelling along EDSA by car or bus takes far more time. For example, travel by bus or by car from North Avenue to Taft Avenue (17 km) on average takes 60 to 90 minutes or even more, while it is less than 30 minutes by MRT. Apparently, the need for additional transfers (usually 2) when using the MRT does not significantly diminish the attractiveness of the speed of travel by MRT, probably because of the high train frequency.

  • Comfort 7% of the respondents indicated that MRT comfort is very good, 75% said that it is good, 15% said that it is fair, while 3% said that it is bad. Those rating comfort as bad or fair almost all travelled during peak hours, when trains are full and it is hotter inside the trains, and there also are queues at the ticket booths. The short travel time itself appears to contribute strongly to the perception of the trip as comfortable, compared to travel by bus or by car caught in heavy traffic jams during peak hours.
  • Reliability 4% of the respondents rate MRT reliability as very good, 91% said it is good, and 5% fair. Reliability includes factors such as the timely arrival of trains, regularity of arrivals and low probability of delay due to engine/technical troubles.

MRT-3 utilisation

It is interesting to compare the actual number of MRT passengers with the predicted number of passengers. Figure 3 shows the average daily number of MRT passengers from December 1999 onwards (note that data for 2003 have been added after the initial study, at the moment of submitting this paper). The large gap between the predicted and the actual volume of passengers is obvious. The effects of the reduction in ticket price in February and July 2000 can be seen clearly.

There are several reasons apart from the initial fare level that explain the gradual growth of the number of passengers, such as the fact that the construction of the last section (3 stations up to Taft Avenue) was only completed towards the end of 2000, access to the stations (i.e., escalators) was completed gradually, train arrival time signalling was initially inaccurate, and getting a ticket took a long time in the peak (automated fare collection system not yet operational).

The high initial MRT-3 fare had a strong effect on the number of passengers. Apparently, price elasticity was very high. DOTC, the operator, started charging 17 flag-down rate (39¢ at the exchange rate of that

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450

400

500

350

300

250

200

150

100

Figure 3. MRT-3 Average daily number of passengers (Actual versus Predicted)

50

0

actual ridership    projected ridership

moment) and 2 per additional station, as proposed in the project report (i.e. around 75¢ for a 10 km trip). This rate was way above the bus fares. The minimum regular bus fare was 3 with an additional 1 for every extra kilometre. For air-conditioned buses, the entry fare was 8, and 2 for every extra kilometre. Most travellers, therefore, continued to use the buses initially.

To attract more passengers, the fare was reduced to

11 flag down rate in February 2000. There was a further reduction in July 2000 (minimum fare of 9.50 and maximum of 15 (any trip length) (i.e. around $0.31 for a 10 (or more) km trip, at the exchange rate of mid-2000). The fare has remained at that level. Therefore, at that moment the fare for a 10 km long trip along EDSA by MRT was 15, by ordinary bus 12 and by air-conditioned bus 26. For a 15 km long trip the MRT was even cheaper than the ordinary bus. The number of passengers soared from around 50,000 per day in June to 175,000 in August.

With the wisdom of hindsight, the commercial soundness of the fare policy is dubious. Immediately starting with a much lower fare, and increasing this as the line was completed and facilities improved might have produced better results. It is in fact unclear whether the travellers would in the current situation not be willing to pay substantially more for the MRT than they are actually paying.

The number of MRT travellers predicted in the project appraisal report was 450,000 passengers per day (week, 7-day, average) during the opening year, and even a further growth of 5% per annum to a
maximum of 600,000 was suggested (with the same vehicle fleet). However, from an analysis of the current number of passengers and their average trip length it is clear that the current level of around an average of 300,000 – 320,000 per day (week, 7-day, average) is in fact the maximum number that the line can handle. The maximum number of passengers that the line can at the moment handle on a single day is around 425,000/day (maximum of the passenger counts on the busiest days during 2003; due to variations between days and Saturdays and Sunday in particular, the daily average per week is much lower).

During the peak periods the capacity utilisation of the line along the central sections is almost 100% in the peak direction, but becomes lower towards the end stations of the line – which is unavoidable – while in the opposite direction, the capacity utilisation is lower (for example, north- and southbound load factors on the three most central sections of 54% and 93% during the pm peak were reported (Martinez, 2002)). The average utilisation during the rest of the day is at best 60%, and during evening hours 30%. It is difficult to see how these percentages could go up significantly, in particular because the biggest competitive advantage of the MRT is in the peak.

The other factor that determines the ratio between the number of passenger-km that the line can handle and the actual number of trips is the average trip-length. Based on entry and exit stations reported by passengers in the survey, the average MRT trip length is around 9 km. Taking into account the maximum occupancy percentages and the average trip-length,

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the maximum number of passengers (trips) that MRT-3 can handle in the current situation (phase I vehicle fleet and track length) is to be estimated at between 320,000 and 360,000.

It is not clear on exactly what grounds the initial project report predicted 450,000 passengers per day. It could be that the actual average trip length was assumed to be significantly lower. The project report may also have been on the optimistic side. The MRTC consortium, accepting a BLT contract only, was probably aware of the uncertainty of the predicted number of travellers.

To increase the capacity of the line, the utilisation of the 73 available light rail vehicles could be optimised (by running 4-car trains during peak hours instead of the 3-car trains currently being used). Assuming 90–95% vehicle availability in the peak period, this could increase the maximum number of passengers per day to around 390,000. When Phase 2 of the MRT-3 Project is completed, 24 additional vehicles will be provided. The number of passengers using the line per day can then be expected to go up to around 540,000 passengers (rather than 900,000 as predicted in the initial project report).

Financial performance evaluation

Financial results for DOTC and MRTC, expected actual results versus project prediction

As shown in the preceding section, there is a big gap between the passenger numbers predicted in the feasibility study and the actual number of passengers. This difference is caused by unrealistic initial projections, not by under-performance of the MRT-3 line. The current fare is also far below the fare assumed in the feasibility study for the line. The implications for the financial performance of the line for the operator (DOTC) are easy to grasp.

According to the project report, DOTC could expect to recover its costs. However, based on the current fare levels and current contractual rates for commercial development around MRT stations, the now

predictable Net Present Value (NPV) of the line for DOTC is –$568 million over the 2000-2024 period (see Table 3, alternative 2; consisting of the NPV of a lease amount to be paid to MRTC of –$1,037 million, the NPV of the net operational revenue on fares of +$388m and a revenue from rent on real estate development by MRTC of +$79m).

The MRTC consortium is not negatively affected by the above ‘gap’, their annual lease income being independent of the fare revenue (NPV $1,037 million; guaranteed 15% return after tax, on $190 million ‘equity’ investment).

The calculations summarised in Table 3 indicate that the overall project NPV for DOTC will be
severely negative, even if significant fare increases are implemented, and that the net MRT-3 cash flow for DOTC will be negative until at best 2016. In the year 2002, the estimated net MRT-3 cash flow paid by the government was –$92 million (74% of the lease payment by DOTC to MRTC was ‘subsidy’).

A closer look at revenue from real estate development at MRT-3 station locations by MRTC/DOTC

In combination with the conclusion that the hoped-for positive indirect effects of the MRT-3 line hardly materialised (low – if at all significant – impact on car and bus traffic levels and hence on pollution and congestion levels), the preceding paragraph on the financial outcome of MRT-3 for the government of the Philippines might seem to lead to rather bleak conclusions about the soundness of the MRT-3 investment. However, a closer look at the financial details of the MRT-3 project shows that this is not necessarily the case.

Fare revenue is not the only revenue generated by the MRT-3 line. Revenue is also generated by commercial real-estate development at station locations (and at the larger MRT vehicle depot location). Part of this revenue is passed on to DOTC in the form of a rent for land development rights.

Linked to the MRT-3 construction, the MRTC consortium obtained development rights on a total of 335,000 m2 of government land, at/around station sites and at the depot site. In the first project documents the annual rent that the consortium would have to pay for the development rights for this land was set at $35 per m2. In the final contract signed in 1997 the amount was much lower, since the rates were specified in Pesos and the strong devaluation of the Peso against the US dollar during that period was not taken into account. Should the initial rates have been maintained, the NPV of development rights revenue would have been around $180 million (scenario 3 in Table 3).

A more detailed financial analysis, beyond the scope of the research reported on here, would be required to assess whether a contract for the MRT-3 that distributed the potential real-estate development profits more equally between the government and the development-consortium would have been reasonable. Here we can only give some raw numbers. The total value of the land for which development rights were granted can be estimated at

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Table 3. Net Present Value of the MRT-3 for DOTC, for different fare level projectionsAverage fare (PhP)            NPV (US$ million) Net cash flow remains

present          2004         2010                                       negative until

Scenario 1 (current fare)                                                 12.5          12.5          12.5                        -659               2024

Scenario 2 (modest fare increase)                                 12.5             15             19                        -568               2016

Scenario 3 (larger fare increase, real estate                   12.5             16             22                        -427               2016

development rights increase to NPV +180)

Note: all values in constant cost (prices)                               .1/1/2000. IInterest rate for NPV calculation:   .10%. IIn 2016 the annual lease to

MRTC drops from $118 to $63 million per year because all loans on the initial investment have then been paid                                 .back.

around $300 million (based on current land prices in this part of Manila), so a rent representing a NPV of that magnitude would in principle be reasonable (or even more, in view of the exceptionally good accessibility of the locations and the large numbers of potential customers passing there – similar price differences can be observed in other countries at high-accessibility locations in congested cities).

Provided that DOTC operates the line in a proper manner and maintains the current levels of passenger satisfaction and security, the attractiveness of the MRT-3 station sites can be expected to increase further over time, since road traffic congestion levels are not going down and the competitive edge of MRT accessibility will increase as the MRT network grows from the addition of other lines.

Land value increase in the MRT-3 corridor

One other important element should be included in the analysis of the financial impact of the MRT line, the effect that the accessibility improvement created by the line has on the land value of the existing real estate in the EDSA corridor. The city has a property tax based on real estate value. This means that a property value increase triggered by improved accessibility increases the tax base, and thus the tax revenue. Analysis of the financial implication of this requires further detailed investigation, including an assessment of valuation procedures and tariffs. However, giving a rough order of magnitude is possible here: the area affected covers around 20 km2 (20 million m2), so a 10% increase in land-value represents a value of around $1,500 million (land-value only, not the value of property built on the land).

Summary

The main findings of the traffic performance evaluation of the MRT-3 line are:

  • After completion of Phase I and all its stations, the line shows an almost full capacity utilisation in the morning and afternoon peak hours, around 60% occupancy during the rest of the day and around 30% in the evening hours (the line now operates from 6.00am until 9.00pm).
  • The peak occupancy of the trains is 100% on the

central part of the line and reduces towards 70% near the end-points.

  • This means that the present volume of daily travellers is around the maximum that the line can be expected to carry at this moment, given the length and frequency of the trains (maximum on a working day 425,000 passengers, maximum week average around 320,000 passengers/day). In terms of utilisation the line can therefore be said to be very successful.
  • The capacity of the rail track still enables significantly longer trains at higher frequencies. Further investment in more trains is planned for future years.
  • The current daily volume of MRT-3 travellers lies at around 75% of the volume predicted in the feasibility study that was carried out in prior to the decision to build the line. The reason is that the feasibility study assumed unrealistic train occupancy factors throughout the day.
  • Almost all MRT-3 passengers (99%) say that they have no car available as an alternative mode of travel for the trip that they make by MRT-3. However, a significant number (27%) states that before the MRT-3 line was opened they made the same trip by car, apparently as a passenger in the car of another household member.
  • This leads to the conclusion that the MRT-3 does not so-far induce car-drivers to leave their car at home and travel by MRT-3, but may have the effect that the car occupancy is lower and that car trips become more direct (less detours to drop/pick other family members), i.e. not less car trips, but maybe slightly less car-km.
  • The travel-time gain of the MRT-3 compared to the same distance travelled along the EDSA corridor in either car or bus is around 45 minutes for 10 km (including waiting for the train, excluding access/egress time and parking time requirement for cars).
  • The main modal shift created by MRT-3 is from buses to the MRT-3. However, this includes a significant amount of diverted and generated traffic, and the number of buses in the EDSA

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World Transport Policy & Practice, Volume 10, Number 4, (2004) 22–31                                                                 31

corridor has not gone down much after MRT-3 went fully operational (by less than 10%).

  • The profile of the dominant MRT-3 user is: 25-40 years old (73%), middle income (66%). The percentage of male (47%) and female (53%) travellers is almost equal. The large majority of the trips is to work, school or for business and back (82%).
  • The satisfaction of the MRT-3 travellers with the level of service on the line is high. This regards all aspects: speed, cost, comfort and reliability.

The main findings of the financial performance evaluation of the MRT-3 line are:

  • The utilisation of the line is highly sensitive to the tariff. When immediately after the opening of the first part of the line the tariff proposed in the earlier feasibility study was charged, the number of passengers remained low. Lowering the tariff to almost the same level as that of buses steeply increased the number of passengers, to full utilisation.
  • The fare revenue of the line is structurally insufficient to recover its capital and operating costs. The percentage of the total costs covered by the fare revenue can improve a bit over the current 20%, because an increase in train frequency and in vehicles per train can be implemented without further investment in the rail track.
  • The real estate revenue generated by exploitation of the MRT-3 stations (and depot site), plus the value increase of existing real estate in the EDSA corridor due to improved accessibility, outweighs the total cost of constructing and operating the line. However, this statement must be treated with caution: it is based on rough ‘order of magnitude’ estimates only. A precise analysis of the real estate development aspects of MRT-3 was beyond the scope of this study. Further study is highly recommended.
  • The contracts for the MRT-3 line between the government of the Philippines and the private consortium that constructed the line and carries out maintenance of the track and the trains, leave the government with a large deficit as well as with the most tricky part of the deal, i.e. operating the trains and the stations (running the trains, collecting fares, security). With the wisdom of hindsight, the overall profitability of the line (considering both fare revenue and real estate revenue) is such that the government could have negotiated a much better contract, from the public interest point of view.

Conclusion

In a high-density mega-city such as metropolitan Manila a rail mass public transport system on a fully separated infrastructure network can be constructed and operated in profitable manner. The most important line network design parameters are (1) the strategic location of stations with respect to land-use development, and (2) real estate development around stations and in the corridor that is synchronised and financially integrated with the rail network construction. Further confirmation by additional financial analysis of the Manila case is recommended.

References

Alzate, E. (2003) ‘Analysis of the modal shift due to the EDSA MRT-3 line in Metro-Manila’ MSc Thesis, UNESCO-IHE, Delft (2003). Sponsored and co-supervised by CROW, Ede, the Netherlands. Armstrong-Wright, A. (1993) Public transport in Third world cities State-of-the-art review 10. Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne.

DOTC (2003) pers comm Department of Transportation and Communications, Manila.

DPWH-TEC (2003) pers comm Department of Public Works and Highways – Traffic Engineering Center, Manila

J.P. Morgan (1997) ‘EDSA Metro rail Transit III, phase I. Project information memorandum’ Unpublished. Martinez, J. (2002) ‘Policies for promoting rail transit usage in metro Manila’ MA Thesis. National Center for Transportation Studies, University of the Philippines http://www.ncts.upd.edu.ph/academic/thesis/johan.  PDF

MMURTRIP (1998) Metro Manila Urban Transport Improvement Project: Final report Unpublished study by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation and various Philippine government agencies.

MMUTIS (1999) Metro Manila Urban Transport Integration Study: Final report Unpublished study by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation and various Philippine government agencies.

Roth, L.C. (2000) ‘An economic approach to urban development and transportation in Metro Manila’ MSc thesis, Linkoping University, Manila.

Satre, G. (1998) ‘The Metro Manila LRT system, a historic perspective’ Japan railway and transport review 16, pp. 33–37.

Evaluating bicycle-car transport mode competitiveness in an urban environment. An activity-based approach

Frank Witlox & Hans Tindemans

Address for correspondence

Frank Witlox & Hans Tindemans

Department of Geography, Ghent University, Krijgslaan 281 (S8), B-9000 Ghent

frank.witlox@ugent.be                                                                                                       http://www.geoweb.ugent.be

Abstract

Since the bicycle is believed to be an important sustainable alternative for the increasingly problematic auto-mobility, this paper discusses the potential modal shift from car to bicycle in the urban region of Ghent. Based on travel diary data the relationships between mode, activity, distance, location and socio-demographic background are explored. In addition, specific attention is paid to urban level of the origin and destination of each trip and to the influence of distance and speed as crucial factors for the competitiveness of cycling to car and other transportation modes.

Keywords

modal split, modal shift, activity-based approach, bicycle travel, Ghent city region

Introduction

In Belgium, like in most Western societies, the use of bicycles declined consistently for years on end. Nonetheless, bicycle stock increased systematically since the 1970s (Van Damme, 1995). The bicycle was no longer regarded as a transport mode for functional trips, and became more and more an instrument for recreational activity (NIS, 2002). Yet, since the mid-1990s there are indications that cycling is coming on again (Van Damme, 1995; Rietveld, 2001).

Belgium is ranked third in Europe regarding the number of traversed bicycle kilometres per person per annum (327 km) (Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, 2002). Yet, this figure is far below the average cycling distance in the Netherlands (1,019 km) and Denmark (958 km), but much better than Portugal (35 km) and Spain (24 km) (ECF, 1997). But also within Belgium the popularity of cycling differs a lot: 90% of all cycling trips are conducted in Flanders, hosting 60% of Belgian inhabitants
(Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, 2002). Most important reasons for big differences in cycling figures are diverse. Climate and topography have often been proposed as reasons for low or high cycle use, but they only contribute to a part of the explanation. Other, even more important factors are the image of the bicycle (Dekoster & Schollaert, 1999) and the presence or absence of a cycling culture (Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, 2002). This can be illustrated by Table 1 which depicts the share of bicycle in the modal split across some European cities. Although these European cities have very different geographical features (weather, topography, size, etc.), they all present relatively high cycling percentages.

Nowadays, in most European countries and cities, the average share of the bicycle is rather marginal. However, at the beginning of C20 until WWII cycling was very popular in Europe as a main transport mode. But from the 1960s on, western society has experienced a tremendous growth of auto mobility. This ‘automobile-revolution’ transformed our society and environment completely. New developments and adjustments of the urban and rural space were invented within the logic of the accessibility of the car (Kaufmann, 1999). The image of the car was that of a ‘perfect and irreplaceable’ mode of transport. It was thought that the car would fulfil the requirement of accessibility both for residents of towns and for the inhabitants of non-urban areas to an unparalleled range of functions. But the car is the victim of its’ own success (Dekoster & Schollaert, 1999). Higher levels of mobility imply also higher levels of immobility. As a result, mobility has become one of the main political issues. Embedded both in the micro and macro economy, higher mobility reflects in more opportunities, but higher mobility also generates lots of (negative)

Table 1: Share of bicycle use across Europe

city Parma Ferrara Amsterdam Groningen Basel Västeras Cambridge
Italy Italy Netherlands Netherlands Switzerland Sweden UK
inhabitants 176,000 160,000 1,000,000 165,000 230,000 115,000 100,000
% of all journeys 19% 30% 20% 48% 23% 33% 27%

Source: based on Dekoster, .J. & Schollaert .U.,    ;1999; ECF,   .1998.

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Figure 1. Ghent city region

City centre

C19 neighbourhoods Suburbs

Urban fringe Commuter zones Waterways Main roads

externalities in the physical, social and economic environment. This duality puts mobility high on the political agenda.

As there is a continuing need in our society to conduct activities and maintain relationships, authorities are keen to make further mobility growth possible, but in a sustainable manner. It is well recognised, however, that the present transport system is unsustainable, and that the urban transport framework, in particular, needs to change if transport is to operate on an environmentally sensible, economically sound and socially just basis (Smith, 1995; T&E, 2002).

The concepts of manageability and sustainability are ubiquitous in current mobility plans. In Flanders the main policy pillars to achieve this are the influencing of spatial-temporal organisation, the promotion of alternative transport patterns, a more efficient use of infrastructure, and the influencing of attitudes and behaviour (Mobiliteitsplan Gent, 2002 & Mobiliteitsplan Vlaanderen, 2002). To that end, the bicycle is (yet again) believed to play a significant role. In Flanders, this belief already resulted in a Global Bicycle Plan (Vlaams Totaalplan Fiets) (Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, 2002). The
benefits of increased bicycle use can be manifold as cycling has several advantages compared to other modes of transport: totally free of emissions, improving physical and mental health, cost effective, low space requirements, etc. (Van Damme, 1995; ECF, 1998).

The city of Ghent recognises the potential of the bicycle as an alternative to the car and is very ambitious to improve the use of the bicycle in the short term (Mobiliteitsplan Gent, 2002). Thanks to some measures promoting bicycle use, cycling has gained popularity the last few years. Nevertheless, cycling still plays second fiddle in terms of modal split.

In this paper we look at bicycle use in the Ghent urban region. Based on the results of a travel survey in 2000 in Ghent we analyse the current modal split and the potential modal shift from car to bicycle. In the literature little attention is given to urban and functional level of origin and destination of trips when analysing modal split in urban regions. Yet, the urban spatial environment is by no means a homogeneous structure. By splitting up the urban region into four functional zones we analyse how urban level affects modal choice. Since distance and speed are believed to be the most important factors whether or not to take

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Table 2: Transport mode by destination zone for trips by city centre dwellersinner city                                inner city         C19 neighbourhoods           suburbs        urban fringes                                              hinterland

N = 1015                             N = 182           N = 148                   N = 42                                                 N = 151

car                                              45.7%                                42.2%              76.8%                   92.9%                                                   74.0%

on foot                                        30.6%                                27.2%                8.5%                     0.0%                                                     4.0%

bicycle                                        16.7%                                20.2%              10.6%                     4.8%                                                     4.0%

local public transport                    4.8%                                  9.2%                3.5%                     0.0%                                                     1.3%

train                                              1.1%                                  1.2%                0.7%                     0.0%                                                   16.7%

Total N = 1538 52.6% 24.5% 14.9% 4.7% 2.7%
Table 3: Transport mode by destination zone for trips by residents of the C19 neighbourhoods
C19                                      inner city         C19 neighbourhoods            suburbs          urban fringes                                  hinterland Total
neighbourhoods                        N = 776                          N = 3450            N = 842                 N = 190                                            N = 480 N = 5738
car                                              36.5%                                55.6%              64.1%                                                   81.3%                                64.3% 55.8%
on foot                                        23.7%                                21.2%              13.2%                                                   2.7%                                  11.7% 18.9%
bicycle                                        22.3%                                14.4%              12.5%                                                   8.2%                                  1.3% 13.9%
local public transport                  15.3%                                 5.5%                 6.7%                                                   4.9%                                   1.1% 6.6%
train                                              0.8%                                  1.6%                 0.4%                                                     0.0%                                  20.0% 2.8%
Table 4: Transport mode by destination zone for trips by residents of the suburbssuburbs                                 inner city        C19 neighbourhoods            suburbs          urban fringes                                    hinterland Total
N = 1039                                                                          N = 1259           N = 8462                 N = 617                                                                                   N = 863 N = 12240
car                                              51.9%                                69.8%              62.4%                                                   86.9%                                76.0% 64.5%
on foot                                        14.9%                                 9.7%              13.6%                                                   3.5%                                   6.7% 12.3%
bicycle                                        15.1%                                10.6%              16.8%                                                   7.4%                                  1.6% 14.4%
local public transport                  14.5%                                 5.8%                 3.4%                                                   0.8%                                   1.2% 4.3%
train                                              0.5%                                  0.8%                 1.6%                                                     0.2%                                  12.8% 2.2%
Table 5: Transport mode by destination zone for trips by residents of the urban fringesurban fringes                         inner city        C19 neighbourhoods            suburbs          urban fringes                                    hinterland Total
N = 441                                                                             N = 392             N = 755                N = 4299                                                                                  N = 563 N = 6450
car                                              64.9%                                82.9%              79.1%                                                   65.7%                                87.7% 70.2%
on foot                                        16.0%                                 4.9%                 5.1%                                                   11.3%                                 3.8% 9.8%
bicycle                                         6.3%                                  4.9%              11.4%                                                     16.1%                                2.6% 13.0%
local public transport                   7.9%                                  4.1%                 1.4%                                                     3.8%                                  0.4% 3.5%
train                                              3.0%                                  1.9%                 0.7%                                                     1.5%                                  4.9% 1.8%

the bicycle (Niepoth, 2003), we also pay special attention to these two aspects.

The paper is structured as follows: the main features of the Ghent city region are examined; the OVG (Onderzoek Verplaatsings Gedrag, Research into Travel Behaviour) Ghent database is briefly outlined; and some figures of the overall travel behaviour in Ghent are depicted. Then, differences in mode use within and between different functional urban areas in Ghent are analysed before we look at the length and speed of different transportation modes and, based on these results, potential modal shift to bicycle is discussed.

The Ghent city region

Ghent is the second largest city in Flanders, with about 225,000 inhabitants. It is a historical trading and harbour city, at the confluence of the Scheldt and
Leie rivers. It is part of the Hamburg–Le Havre harbour range with a large industrial concentration. The harbour area north of the city employs about 25,000 people. The city centre hosts a lot of service industries, especially retail trade, bank and insurance companies, while at the southern border of the city a growing number of high tech firms are setting up. The city has also a large university with about 25,000 students and several colleges of higher education and high schools. Just south of Ghent is the intersection of two European highways E17 and E40 linking Ghent with major European cities.

The Ghent city region (core, C19 rim, suburbs and hinterland) has a surface of 537 km2 and houses about 400,000 inhabitants (see Figure 1). The Ghent Metropolitan Labour Areas, including the commuting zones, count about 550,000 inhabitants on a surface of

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75

50

25

0

%

minutes 0 – 5                 6 – 10          11 – 1 5         16 – 20          21 – 30        31 – 60        61 – 120         > 120

100

Figure 2. Cumulative percentage of trips over time

1131 km2. This means that nearly 300,000 people live in the villages of the Ghent commuting belt outside the city limits.

Activity-based travel data for the Ghent region

In this study we will consider the individual trip as the basic element of the entire travel and activity pattern of that individual. We define a trip as a movement of a household member from an origin to a (different) destination to execute an activity

(Cirillo & Toint, 2001). One trip may exist as a combination of intermediate stages in which different transport modes are used. For trips with several stages, the main transport mode is defined as the mode taken during the stage with the longest distance.

Each trip can be part of a larger trip chain. A chain is a sequence of trips starting and ending at the base location (in fact, the starting point during that day).

The data for this study were obtained from the OVG 2000, which is part of a broad study by the Flemish community into travel behaviour in Flanders. In various Flemish urban regions, all individuals above the age of 5 belonging to selected households were asked to keep a two-day consecutive travel diary with detailed information about their movements, including time of day, duration, distance and transport mode. From these data, a larger dataset was obtained which contained, besides travel data, also socio-demographic background information about each person and household (Nuyts & Zwerts, 2001). The aim of this large-scale project is to obtain an up-to-date accurate picture of individual’s mobility demand in Flanders.

In the Ghent region, this survey was completed during the year 2000 and covered some 6,800 people
from 3,000 families, who together generated some 36,000 trips over a period of two days. This results in an on average of 2.6 trips per person per day. This number is comparable with figures of other OVG surveys in Flanders. But these figures may be under estimations due to fatigue effects during the second day: the first day the average number of trips is just more than 2.8, the second day the average is less than 2.5. Nevertheless, these figures are low, compared to the average of 3.7 trips per person a day in the Netherlands (Rietveld, 2001).

Although the OVG dataset is statistically representative for the Ghent population, the sample is not spatially representative. Only people living in the Ghent urban region were surveyed, but even within this area not all municipalities were included. There are no respondents from Sint-Martens-Latem and Deurle, two municipalities from the Ghent suburbs. From the urban fringe only half of the municipalities were included. This lack of spatial representativity may have its repercussion on the analysis of transport demand. Differences in socio-demographic background result in different activity participation and spatial behaviour. To this end, especially the exclusion of Sint-Martens-Latem and Deurle is striking, since it is an important residential area with very high incomes.

In addition, to obtain a full picture of mobility and transport patterns in Ghent, one must include commuters from Ghent’s hinterland as well as the urban residents.

General features of travel behaviour in Ghent

Modal split

In Ghent over 60% of reported trips involve the car as the main transport mode: 45% as a driver and 15% as a passenger. Cycling and walking account for roughly

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75

50

25

0

km       0.1-0.2 0.3-0.5 0.6-1               1.1-2       2.1-3        3.1-5                     5.1-7.5 7.5-10 10.1-15 15.1-25 25.1-40 > 40

%

100

Figure 3: Cummulative percentage of trips over distance

the same proportion of trips, approximately 13% each. Public transport, on the other hand, plays a modest role: the bus is used for 3% of trips, tram for 1.5% and train for 2%. These figures are more or less similar to the average modal split found in the OVG survey in Flanders (Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, 2002). Yet, working with statistics on ‘main’ transport mode may lead to erratic patterns, as they often result in a systematic underestimation of non-motorised transport modes (Rietveld, 2001). Therefore, participants were also asked to note in their diaries all stages of each trip. However, in view of the very limited number of reports of secondary modes (stages at home end or activity end), we could not obtain a clear picture of the actual volume of trips involving combined modes, and accordingly the actual importance of each mode cannot be deduced. Nevertheless, it seems safe to assume that, in most cases, part of the trip is made ‘on foot’. Cycling occurs far less frequently as combined mode and most often in relation with train at the home end of a trip. Considering the overall limited use of public transport, people rarely combine different public transport modes.

It appears from the OVG Ghent that people tend not to combine activities in their travel patterns (i.e. multi-purpose trips) and that they often return home before embarking on another activity. Approximately 55% of all activities occur in a two-trip chain. If activities are combined, this usually happens in three-trip chains (20% of all trips) or four-trip chains (12%). Combinations of more than three activities are rare.

Travel motives

Shopping trips and work/business trips each account for over 20% of all trips. The third most important reason for travelling is leisure, sports or
culture (13%). Other important motives are personal visits (11%), bringing or getting someone (10%), school trips (7%) and visits to a doctor, bank, etc. (5%).

If one considers bicycle use per travel motive, it appears that this mode is roughly equally ‘popular’ (13%) for all activities, with the exception of school trips where the bicycle’s share is only slightly lower than that of the car (27% of all school trips are made by bicycle compared to 30% by car) This is remarkably less than the 33% revealed by OVG Flanders 1994-1995 (Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, 2001) and can be explained by more walking trips to school in Ghent. Yet, the most important motives for walking trips are shopping and leisure: one-third of all walking trips is made to shops, while 15% are for leisure, sports or cultural purposes.

The car appears to be the most important mode for trips whereby a passenger is brought or collected (80%), but also for personal visits and for business/work trips. Car use for shopping trips is below the average car use (55%), but of course car use is the lowest for school trips (less than one-third). Unsurprisingly, the percentage of school trips as a car passenger is the highest, and on the other hand for leisure, sports or cultural trips, the car is often shared with others (there are almost as many car passengers as drivers). The car is shared quite frequently for visits, but concerning other travel motives the proportion of passengers is rather low.

Public transport seems to be of rather marginal importance to overall mobility. Moreover, the train is used mostly for work trips (65% of all trips by train). Tram and bus are used primarily by youngsters for getting to school (27%), shopping (23%) and travelling to work (18%).

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Car

Walking                Train

Bicycle                 Public Transport

Figure 4. Modal split per distance class (absolute numbers)

km       0.1-0.2 0.3-0.5           0.6-1       1.1-2       2.1-3        3.1-5     5.1-7.5 7.5-10 10.1-15 15.1-25 25.1-40                   > 40

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Modal split and socio-demographic background

Car use increases with income (see Table 5). Moreover, the number of trips as a driver also rises with income, which implies that people with a lower income are more likely to share a car. Obviously, the share of the other modes declines proportionately. While in the case of tram, bus and trips made on foot this decline is rather steady. It is quite noticeable that the highest income category makes very little use of the bicycle.

Men make more trips by car than women and, moreover, they usually drive. Women are passengers in almost a third of the trips they make by car, compared to less than one in four in the case of men. Women make slightly more trips by local public transport than men do, while men are more frequent train users. With regards to walking and cycling, there is hardly any difference between men and women.

The population of active age (20–65 years) makes most frequent use of the car (c. 70%). Above the age of 60, car use declines again. Those belonging to the youngest age group (up to 12 years) also make about 70% of their trips by car, though obviously as passengers. Car use is the lowest among those aged 12 to 25 years. It is during this life phase that people make relatively most bicycle trips (about 20%). For people from the active population (20–65 years) this is just slightly more than the half (11%). While in the active population, women cycle more than men, for younger people this is just the opposite. With respect
to pubic transport a similar pattern could be retrieved: younger people and elderly people travel relatively more with public transport than the active population.

Duration and distance

Approximately 75% of all trips are shorter than 10 km and take less than 20 minutes (figure 2 and 3). Moreover, almost half of all trips are shorter than 5 km and take less than 15 minutes. Considering this high amount of short trips, it is amazing that approximately 60% of all trips are made by car. Figure

4 depicts the number of trips per mode per distance class. The car is used primarily for trips involving distances of over 1 km, while shorter trips are usually made on foot (70% of all walking trips are shorter than 1 km). The bicycle is used almost exclusively for trips between 0.5 km and 5 km, and most commonly for those between 1 km and 2 km. The most frequently covered distances by bus or tram are slightly longer at around

5 km. The train, finally, is used for longer distances (usually between 40 km and 60 km), primarily to other large population centres such as Brussels or Antwerp.

Depending on the motive, the distance also varies quite considerably. Shopping and school trips are usually short (under 3 km), as are leisure trips (c. 5 km). Work trips are, on average, the longest: 10 km to 20 km is no exception, and trips of over 40 km also occur quite frequently in the form of commuting to Brussels and Antwerp.

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Modal split and urban level

Section 4 shows that cycling is not that frequently used as main transport mode (13%), except for school trips (27%), and often for distances between 1 km and 5 km. This means that cycling can be considered as a rather local transport mode and one can expect variation in bicycle use among different areas in the Ghent city region. In the historical city centre, containing the largest pedestrianised area of Belgium and lots of one-way streets, the traffic system differs completely from those in the harbour or more rural areas. Not only quantity and

availability of transportation alternatives come into play, but also the quality of each transport mode will vary according to the functional hierarchy of the zone.

In order to analyse the effect of urban and functional level on modal split, we will subdivide the urban region of Ghent in four concentric functional zones: the city centre, the C19 neighbourhoods, the suburbs and the urban fringes, in accordance with the system proposed by Van Der Haegen et al. (1996) (see also Verhetsel et al., 2002). Subsequently, we consider modal split, average distance and average speed for inter- and intra-zonal trips.

Modal split according to place of residence and location of the activity

Generally speaking, car use increases as the urban character of the area of residence decreases: from an average of 50% of all trips in the case of city-dwellers to 66% of those living in the urban fringes. The situation is precisely the opposite for walking trips. People from the city centre make almost one in four trips on foot, compared to less than 10% for those living in the urban fringes. The proportion of cycling does not differ much for the various zones, although it is slightly higher in the inner city (14%) than in the urban fringes. Bus and tram (local public transport) is used least frequently by people living in the urban fringes and most frequently by residents of the C19 neighbourhoods, though even among the latter it accounts for only 6% of all trips.

Depending on the place of residence and the destination of the trip, it is noticeable that there are differences with regard to the chosen mode (see Tables 2 to 5).

First and foremost, it appears that between 60% and 70% of all trips are made within the zone of residence. In view of the small average distance covered, this is not surprising. Although car use for such local trips is lower than is the case for longer trips, the car still is clearly the principal mode of transport for intra-zonal trips. It is striking that, despite policy efforts to discourage car use in the inner
city, residents of the inner city use the car for over 40% of trips to a location within that city centre (by comparison, in Antwerp this is less than 30%). Thus, in Ghent, trips by car represent a larger share than trips made on foot (30%) or by bicycle (16%).

If the destination lies in the C19 neighbourhoods, then the share of car trips drops slightly, while the proportion of trips by public transport or bicycle increases. If the destination lies in the suburbs or urban fringes, the proportion of car use increases sharply (up to 90% in the case of trips to the urban fringes). For trips beyond the urban region, the train comes into play (16%).

The modal split for people living in the C19 neighbourhoods is slightly different. The share of the car in trips to the inner city is relatively small (37%), while the share of the bicycle (22%) and public transport (15%) are quite high. Within the C19 neighbourhood, car use lies above 55%, while trips on foot account for 21% of the total number. Trips by public transport within one’s own zone are quite rare (5%), while the bicycle is used rather more frequently (13%). Regarding trips to the suburbs or the urban fringes, car use increases, while the share of other modes declines.

For residents of the suburbs, the car accounts for approximately 65% of journeys. Only for trips in and to the inner city does this share decline slightly (52%), while for trips in and to the C19 neighbourhoods it is significantly higher (70%) and for trips in and to the urban fringes it reaches 87%. Looking at trips within its own zone the car accounts for roughly 62% of all trips. For trips to the city centre, bicycle and public transport each account for approximately 14%, but in the case of trips to the C19 neighbourhoods, these

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shares are 5% to 10% lower.

Finally, residents of the urban fringes are, relatively speaking, the most frequent car users. Over three-quarters of all trips to the C19 neighbourhoods are made by car, and so are 63% of trips to the inner city. This high proportion of car use coincides with a lower use of the bicycle and public transport. The distance and time required to reach the inner city most likely play an important role in this choice. In its own zone, bicycle use is comparable to that of residents of other urban zones, though the number of trips made on foot is noticeably lower.

Average distance and urban level

In a compact city, compared to rural environments, more activities are possible in smaller areas, implying shorter travel distances (Bouwman, 2000). Smaller distances entail that more activity locations can be reached by non-motorised transport (and public transport), which may result in higher modal shift from car to walking, cycling or public transport. The average traversed distance between the four selected functional zones in the Ghent city region (Figure 5), indicate that creating a modal shift is very difficult for trips from and to the urban fringe. The average distance is approximately 10 km, while more than 90% of bicycle trips are shorter than 7.5 km and on public transport 80% are shorter than 10 km. On the other hand, the average distances in the inner city and the C19 neighbourhoods are far below the maximum reach for cycling and public transport. Trips between inner city and C19 neighbourhoods and suburbs, are on average 4 km and 6 km respectively, making cycling possible but not for all people and every case. For public transport, this distance should not be a problem.

Average speed and urban level

In Figures 6, 7, 8 and 9 the average speed for trips between different urban zones are set out per transport mode. The car is by far the fastest way to travel in the city region of Ghent. Even in the inner city the average speed is higher than for cycling or public transport while differences are not that great in the outer zones. Yet, speed does not vary for cycling and walking over different urban zones. In contrast, the speed for car trips is highly dependent on distance and urban level. This means that if speed is a crucial factor in the decision making process for modal choice, then the bicycle is most competitive to the car in dense built-up areas of the inner city. All over the city region, the speed of cycling is very similar to that of public transport, which means that they are real competitors for trips up to 7.5 km.
Conclusions and closing remarks

Currently, cycling plays a very secondary role in urban traffic; indeed, it is not part of daily life and too often the bicycle is only recognised for its recreational utility. People in the active population of Ghent ride a bike for only 1 in 10 trips, while the car is main transport mode for 7 in 10 trips. Even young people are car passengers for half of their trips, making it also their principal transport mode. But, with one-fifth of their journeys by bicycle, for young people cycling is clearly more prominent than for other age groups. Nevertheless, cycling is almost as popular as the car only for school trips.

Approximately 75% of all trips are shorter than

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10 km and take less than 20 minutes. For cycling even more than 85% of trips are shorter than 5 km. This means that most activities are within cycling distance, though trips longer than 5 km will often be considered as too far.

This research also corroborates the assumption that distance and speed seem to be very important factors for modal choice. Moreover, modal attractiveness, trip length and speed are not constant within the city region.

In general, the use of the car decreases clearly from the urban fringe to the inner city, while walking is much more important in the city centre compared to outward urban regions. This may be explained by the fact that distances in more densely built areas are shorter. The inner city and C19 neighbourhoods are more compact and host more functions in a limited space. In addition, due to detouring and the limited maximum speed in the central city, in some cases, cycling, urban transport, and even walking can be faster than by car. In contrast to car and walking, the share of cycling remains fairly similar over different urban regions. A possible explanation is that walking in the inner city is a true competitor for cycling, as most trips are within walking distances. Outward the inner city distances grow, but also the competition with public transport (especially in the C19 neighbourhoods and suburbs) and the car (especially suburbs and urban fringe). The fact that the share of cycling does not vary over urban functional zones may also be interpreted as a potential advantage, and may indicate that cycling has a wide and widespread catchment area, not limited to any infrastructural constraints.

This paper revealed that the car is still dominant in intra-urban traffic, not only for residents of suburbs and the urban fringe, but also it is the most important transport mode even for citizens of the inner city. Accordingly, to achieve sustainable urban mobility means that the natural, deep-seated habit to take the car, even for short trips, must be tackled. A recent survey of the Belgian federation of car and two-wheeler industries indicated that, although commuters are annoyed with congestion, more than 75% of the commuters are satisfied with their current mobility (Febiac, 2002). This is just one indication that creating a modal shift from car to bicycle will be a very difficult task, especially because commuting motorists consider the car as a comfortable and fast transport mode. A lack of (viable) alternatives is only the third most important factor for taking the car (Febiac, 2002). In addition, the present study shows that the car is faster than the bicycle, even in inner city Ghent. Moreover, the car has a very wide
catchment area. Cycling could only be competitive for trips up to 5 km (or maximum 7.5 km). For trips up to 1 km there is competition from walking and between 1 km and 7.5 km there is competition from public transport. Thus, at the moment, the bicycle has more potential to compete with walking and public transport than attracting motorists. It is noteworthy, therefore, that a pro-cycling policy will only lead to a modal shift from walking or public transport to cycling, gaining nothing on sustainability.

Nonetheless, bicycle use has most growth potential for trips within a range of 1 km to 3 km. In particular, promotion of the bicycle for shopping can be very effective, since shopping is the number one reason to go

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on a journey. In addition, a study carried out in Munster (Germany) reveals that given the distance involved, the destinations which follow a visit to a shop, and the quantities purchased, a large number of motorists could often do without their car when shopping (Dekoster, J. & Schollaert U., 1999).

For trips longer than 5 km, the bicycle can also play an important role to realise a more successful and effective modal shift to environmentally cleaner mobility by creating an active synergy between bike and public transport. In fact, for longer trips, only the complementary developments of bicycle facilities and public transport infrastructure (not only train but also tram and bus) will compete with the car. Ensuring good accessibility to public transport, in combination with the provision of walking and cycling networks, is crucial to reducing reliance on the car and promoting more sustainable alternative travel patterns. Good accessibility to public transport also makes it possible to reduce the amount of parking for development, which in turn may help to promote the use of public transport (Barton, 2000). The integral approach of combining public transport with walking and cycling networks implies enough speed, higher distances and better penetration in a diverse and widespread urban environment. Not only at the home end of public transport trips but also at the activity end, better bicycle facilities and supply of (rental) bicycles will help to create a viable alternative to car (see among others the establishment of NS Fiets BV in the Netherlands, which is not only responsible for the management of bicycle parking facilities, but must also guarantee the development and supply of bicycle related products and services, e.g. repair services, sale of bicycles and accessories and bicycle rental (Vermeul, 2000)).

Many measures are available to increase the share of cycling in the modal split (creation of a bicycle network, improving image, provision of safe bicycle parking at all major origins and destinations, same status as public transport and cars in planning, tax incentives for environmental friendly modes rather than cars, promoting cycling management in firms and institutions, etc.), but it will be very difficult to select goal-effective measures. Hence, in the quest for more sustainable mobility, the importance of cycling is not just its environmental benefit, but one must also recognise the economic and social gains of a greater cycling share in the modal split. In fact, these three concepts are interwoven and sustainable policy needs an integrated approach of economic, environmental and social aspects. Simultaneously, this contributes to a positive effect on different levels, the so-called ‘double dividend’ or ‘win-win’ approach (Rombouts,
2003).

Some possible measures in the environmental component have been proposed above. Working on the economic component may incorporate for example a fair evaluation of the actual cost of different transport modes, both the personal cost and the social cost. Taking into account the total cost, direct and indirect, it appears that cycling is very cost effective. The bicycle itself is cheap, maintenance costs are reasonable and the necessary infrastructure is cheap compared to other modes (ECF, 1998). Regarding the social aspect of mobility, more incentives must be oriented and adapted to different social groups. Our society is fragmenting more into various social groups, each with its own specific subculture, resulting in specific spatial mobility demands and habits. Consequently, (cost-) effective pro-cycling measures will have to be very specific and oriented to particular groups. But there is more: from a social point of view the promotion of cycling could be interesting. It is well-known that modes of transport convey different values, implying particular social status, which confirms their contrasting social representation but, furthermore, unequal accessibility also produces social inequality as it defines the ‘possibility fields’ for each social group (Kaufmann, 1999). In this respect, if status and attraction of cycling can be promoted among different social classes, cycling could be viewed as an effective cheap remedy to counter the dynamic of social exclusion. Accordingly, a special effort is needed to involve socially weak classes of society.

Acknowledgement

This research was conducted within the framework of the SAMBA-project (Spatial Analysis and Modelling Based on Activities). It is funded by DWTC (CP/02/414) and is a joint effort by four universities: FUNDP (Namur) (co-ordination), UCL (Louvain-La-Neuve), UFSIA (Antwerp) and RUG (Ghent).

References

Barton, H. (ed.) (2000) ‘Sustainable communities: The Potential for Eco-neighbourhoods’ Earthscan, London. Bouwman, M.E. (2000) ‘Changing mobility patterns in a compact city: Environmental impacts’ in de Roo, G. & Miller, D. (eds.) Compact Cities and Sustainable Urban Development: A Critical Assessment of Policies and Plans from an International Perspective, International Urban Planning & Environment Association, Ashgate, pp. 229-240.

Cirillo, C. & Toint, P. (2001) ‘An activity-based approach to the Belgian National Travel Survey’ Transportation Research Group FUNDP, Namur, Belgium.

Dekoster, J. & Schollaert, U. (1999) Cycling: the way ahead for towns and cities DG Environment,

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Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg. http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/cycling/cycli ng en.pdf

ECF (1997) Transport demand of modes not covered in international statistics ECF Report on Cycling, Annex 5, Study commissioned by the European Commission, DG VII, UITP/European Cyclists’ Federation, Brussels ____ (1998),‘Cycling in Urban Areas’ ECF Position Paper, European Cyclists’ Federation, Brussels, http://www.ecf.com/publications/Download/urbangb  .doc

Kaufmann, V. (1999) ‘Mobilité et vie quotidienne: synthèse et questions de recherche’ in 2001 plus – Synthèses et recherches no 48, Centre de Prospective et de Veille Scientifique, Direction de la recherche et des affaires scientifiques et techniques, Ministère de l’Equipement, des Transports et du Logement.

Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap (2001) ‘Vademecum Fietsvoorzieningen’ Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, Departement Leefmilieu en infrastructuur, Mobiliteitscel, Brussel.

____ (2002) ‘Ontwerp Vlaams Totaalplan Fiets’ Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, Departement Leefmilieu en infrastructuur, Mobiliteitscel, Brussel.

Mobiliteitplan Vlaanderen (2002) ‘Mobiliteitsplan Vlaanderen’ Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, Departement Leefmilieu en Infrastructuur, Brussel. http://viwc.lin.vlaanderen.be/mobiliteit/printsamen  vatting.htm

Mobiliteitsplan Gent (2002) ‘Mobiliteitsplan Gent, fase 3: Opbouw van het beleidsplan (pre-audit)’ Dienst Mobiliteit, Gent. Unpublished.

Nieupoth, H. (2003) ‘Hoe populair is de fiets nog? Een onderzoek naar fietsgebruik en het imago van de fiets’ in CVS, Transportation Planning Research Colloquium 2003: No pay, no queue, Delft, pp. 1665-1683.
Nuyts, E. & Zwerts, E. (2001) ‘Onderzoek Verplaatsings Gedrag Vlaanderen en Stadsgewest Gent, [OVG] januari 2000-januari 2001, Controle en begeleidingsopdracht’ Unpublished.

Rietveld, P. (2001) ‘Biking and walking: The position of non-motorized transport modes in transportation systems’ in Button, K.J. & Hensher, D.A. (eds.) Handbook of Transport Systems and Traffic Control, Handbooks in Transport, Vol. 3, Pergamon, Elsevier Science, Oxford, pp. 299-319.

Rombouts, T. (2003) ‘Duurzame ontwikkeling: eenwerldwijde uitdaging’ in Develtere, P. (ed.) Het draagvlak voor duurzame ontwikkeling; Wat het is en zou kunnen zijn, Uitgeverij De Boek, Antwerpen. Smith, M. (1995) ‘The changing role of cycling within Chinese transport policy’ World Transport Policy & Practice Vol. 1(3), pp. 42-46.

T&E (2002) Taking the bull by the horns: Urban transport in Europe European Federation for Transport and Environment, Brussels.

Van Damme, J. (1995) ‘Fietsen kan’ Langzaam Verkeer in opdracht van de Koning Boudewijnstichting, Leuven. Van der Haegen, H., Van Hecke, E. & Juchtmans, G. (1996) ‘De Belgische stadsgewesten 1991 Statistische Studiën, 104, pp. 5-42, Leuven.

Verhetsel, A., Witlox, F., Tindemans, H. & Van Hofstraeten, D. (2002) ‘Dynamics in city regions: the intra-urban travel patterns in Antwerp and Ghent, Belgium’ The Land Journal of the International Land Use Society Vol. 6 (2), pp. 107-128.

Vermeul, M. (2000) ‘NS Fiets BV: Management of bicycle parking at Dutch railway stations’ Paper presented at the Velo-Mondial Conference, Amsterdam.

High Tide: News from a Warming World

Mark Lynas

2004

UK: Flamingo, ISBN 000713939X £16.99 Reviewed by Pascal Desmond.

Mark Lynas has written a very important account of climate change. He notes in passing the things many already know: there are increases in global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions, and these prevent the sun’s heat from radiating back into space, thus exacerbating the problem. He touches on the fierce summer heatwave in the summer of 2003 which took nearly 15,000 people in France and some 2000 in the UK.

He goes a step further, however, in visiting some of the places – and meeting some of the people whose lives and livelihoods are – being directly affected by
German title: Sturmwarnung: Berichte von den Brennpunkten der globalen Klimakatastrophe – Riemann Verlag, ISBN 3570500411 € 20.00

USA title: High Tide: The Truth About Our Climate Crisis – Picador, ISBN 0312303653 $14.00

Purchasable at http://www.marklynas.org

He toured parts of Britain which were damaged by floods in November 2000 and shows a nice turn of phrase when noting that ‘No pints were served in the King’s Arms {public house] in York’ during these floods. One climatologist advised him that Britain is getting more extreme weather, particularly heavier downpours. A businessman, whose premises in Monmouthshire was flooded three years in a row, remarked that ‘We don’t have a winter anymore, we have a wet season’.

Alaska, a state dependent on oil revenue for its income, is also suffering from climate change. The

Jacabamba Glacier, Peru. On the left, a photograph taken by the author’s father in 1980. On the
right, the same view in 2002. From High Tide

climate change. Like a rail company once blaming delays on ‘the wrong type of snow’, this is a story of the wrong type of water, be it salt, frozen, unfrozen, too much falling or too little. Its accessibility is increased by mixing travelogue with science which is presented at a level suitable for the non-scientist.
community at Shishmaref is gradually disappearing into the Bering Strait as the permafrost becomes less permanent. At Kaktovik, freshwater lakes and fish have disappeared as the permafrost which provided an impermeable layer beneath the lakes has softened. In Prudhoe Bay, he asks too many questions and is

treated with suspicion. Regardless of whether the oil industry is culpable for climate change, those working in Prudhoe Bay’s oil fields were quick to remind him that he arrived there by jet.

His next airport of call was Tuvalu, a group of islands in the Pacific Ocean barely above sea level. The government of Tuvalu is already planning the phased migration of the entire population of 11,500 to New Zealand because the sea level is rising. And it isn’t just a rising sea level which is the problem; spring tides are higher and storms are fiercer. Pulaka, a tuber grown in freshwater pits, has been a staple of the Tuvaluan diet. However, these pits are being inundated with seawater at high tide thus destroying the crop. Accordingly, Tuvaluans now eat imported rice and the staple, Pulaka, has become a luxury.

Finally, following visits to a desertifying China and a hurricaneful North Carolina, we arrive in Peru. The author’s father had worked there in 1980 and suggested that his son photograph the Jacabamba Glacier as he had done. In 1980 it was a not untypical high mountain glacier calving into a lake. In 2002 there is a massive moraine of glacial till and hardly any ice. While these photographs of the Jacabamba Glacier are dramatic, they are not as frightening as the situation at Glacier Sullcon which is Lima’s water
supply. Should it continue to shrink as it has then it will disappear, as has Jacabamba. The population of Lima is 8 million thirsty people. At an international conference on mountain ecosystems in Peru, Lynas heard that there are numerous cities throughout the Third World similarly dependent on (rapidly disappearing) glacial runoff.

He leaves unstated an obvious conundrum: where will all these people go? This is where population pressures and evaporating water supplies will collide with a catastrophic fury. We’re facing a global migration problem induced by environmental devastation. In western Europe, we’ve seen a massive negative reaction to a relatively tiny number of political refugees. What will happen when tens of millions of environmental refugees arrive at our First World doorsteps?

We are very lucky to be able to read this book by Mark Lynas because he was incredibly careless and stupid while in the Andes; he ascended much too quickly and very nearly lost his life to altitude sickness. However, given society’s attitude to climate change are we any less stupid? In this regard, I believe that High Tide is not only a wake-up call for humanity, it is a metaphor for our careless attitude to our future and our children’s future.

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WTPP has a philosophy based on the equal importance of academic rigour and a strong commitment to ideas, policies and practical initiatives that will bring about a reduction in global dependency on cars, lorries and aircraft.

WTPP has a commitment to sustainable transport which embraces the urgent need to cut global emissions of carbon dioxide, to reduce the amount of new infrastructure of all kinds and to highlight the importance of future generations, the poor, those who live in degraded environments and those deprived of human rights by planning systems that put a higher importance on economic objectives than on the environment and social justice.

WTPP embraces a different approach to science and through science to publishing. This view is based on an honest evaluation of the track record of transport planning, engineering and economics. All too often, these interrelated disciplines have embraced quantitative, elitist or mechanistic views of society, space and infrastructure and have eliminated people from the analysis.

To help it to reach a wide readership, encompassing advocates and activists as well as academics and advisers, WTPP is available free of charge as PDF files on the internet at http://www.eco-logica.co.uk/WTPPhome.html

A

ADAM, B., see HARRIS, P.

AKANMU, J.O., see OGUNWOLU, F.O. ALZATE, E., see DE LANGEN, M.

C

Co-operative paratransit transport schemes appropriate for a developing economy OGUNWOLU, F.O. & AKANMU, J.O.CURTIS, C. & HOLLING, C.

Just how (Travel) Smart are Australian universities when it comes to implementing sustainable travel?

(2)(1) 3322
D
DE LANGEN, M., ALZATE, E. & TALENS, H. An evaluation of the traffic and financial performance of the
MRT-3 light-rail/metro line in Manila (4) 22
DEBETTENCOURT, J., DITTMAR, H. & PERL, A.
U.S. Air Transportation Since 9/11/2001: Disruption or Transformation? (1) 15
DINWOODIE, J., see TERADA, K.
DITTMAR, H., see DEBETTENCOURT, J.
DREWES NIELSEN, L., JESPERSEN, P.H. & HARTMANN-PETERSEN, K.
Future workshops on freight transport – a methodology for actor involvement (3) 36
DREWES NIELSEN, L. & NYGAARD, E.
(A) sociological perspective on supply chains – an interview analysis (3) 42
DREWES NIELSEN, L., see JESPERSEN, P.H.
DREWES NIELSEN, L., see PETERSEN, T.
E
Economic Value of Walkability LITMAN, T.A. (1) 5
Emerging European-style planning in the USA: Transit-oriented development
RENNE, J.L. & WELLS, J.S. (2) 12
ENOCH, M., WIXEY, S. & ISON, S.
Practical Lessons for Winning Support for Radical Transport Proposals (1) 34
Evaluating bicycle-car transport mode competitiveness in an urban environment. An activity-based approach
WITLOX, F. & TINDEMANS, H. (4) 32
(An) evaluation of the traffic and financial performance of the MRT-3 light-rail/metro line in Manila DE
LANGEN, M., ALZATE, E. & TALENS, H. (4) 22
F
Fresh salmon from Norway to Japan – a case study of a global supply chain
PETERSEN, T. & DREWES NIELSEN, L. (3) 12
Future workshops on freight transport – a methodology for actor involvement
DREWES NIELSEN, L., JESPERSEN, P.H. & HARTMANN-PETERSEN, K. (3) 36
G
GJESING HANSEN, L.
Transport logistics effects of new traffic infrastructures – examples from the Scandinavian Links (3) 19
(Guest) Editorial JESPERSEN, P.H. (3) 4
H
HARRIS, P., LEWIS, J. & ADAM, B. Time, Sustainable Transport and the Politics of Speed (2) 5

HARTMANN-PETERSEN, K., see DREWES NIELSEN, L. HOLLING, C., see CURTIS, C.

Author & Title Index to World Transport Policy & Practice, Volume 10, 2004 46
IISON, S., see ENOCH, M.J
JESPERSEN, P.H. (Guest) Editorial (3) 4
JESPERSEN, P.H. & DREWES NIELSEN, L. Logistics and transport – a conceptual model (3) 6
JESPERSEN, P.H. (The) transport content of products (3) 28
JESPERSEN, P.H., see DREWES NIELSEN, L.
JOSEPH, S. New localism and transport: a local perspective (2) 25
Just how (Travel) Smart are Australian universities when it comes to implementing sustainable travel?
CURTIS, C. & HOLLING, C. (1) 22
K
KHAYESI, M. & PEDEN, M. World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention (4) 5
L
LEWIS, J., see HARRIS, P.
LITMAN, T.A. Economic Value of Walkability (1) 5
Logistics and transport – a conceptual model JESPERSEN, P.H. & DREWES NIELSEN, L. (3) 6
N
New localism and transport: a local perspective JOSEPH, S. (2) 25
NYGAARD, E., see DREWES NIELSEN, L.
O
OGUNWOLU, F.O. & AKANMU, J.O.
Co-operative paratransit transport schemes appropriate for a developing economy (2) 33
P
PEDEN, M., see KHAYESI, M.
PERL, A., see DEBETTENCOURT, J.
PETERSEN, T. & DREWES NIELSEN, L.
Fresh salmon from Norway to Japan – a case study of a global supply chain (3) 12
Practical Lessons for Winning Support for Radical Transport Proposals
ENOCH, M., WIXEY, S. & ISON, S. (1) 34
Promoting inclusion through Bus Quality Partnerships in southwest England
TERADA, K. & DINWOODIE, J. (4) 8
R
RENNE, J.L. & WELLS, J.S.
Emerging European-style planning in the USA: Transit-oriented development (2) 12
REUTTER, O. The ‘YOU-move.nrw’ campaign – New partnerships for youth-oriented and environmentally
friendly mobility management (4) 15
S
(A) sociological perspective on supply chains – an interview analysis
DREWES NIELSEN, L. & NYGAARD, E. (3) 42
T
TALENS, H., see DE LANGEN, M.
TERADA, K. & DINWOODIE, J.
Promoting inclusion through Bus Quality Partnerships in southwest England (1) 8
Time, Sustainable Transport and the Politics of Speed HARRIS, P., LEWIS, J. & ADAM, B. (2) 5
TINDEMANS, H., see WITLOX, F.
(The) transport content of products JESPERSEN, P.H. (3) 28
Author & Title Index to World Transport Policy & Practice, Volume 10, 2004 47
Transport logistics effects of new traffic infrastructures – examples from the Scandinavian Links
GJESING HANSEN, L. (3) 19
U
U.S. Air Transportation Since 9/11/2001: Disruption or Transformation?
DEBETTENCOURT, J., DITTMAR, H. & PERL, A. (1) 15
W
WELLS, J.S., see RENNE, J.L.
WITLOX, F. & TINDEMANS, H. Evaluating bicycle-car transport mode competitiveness in an urban environment. An activity-based approach (4) 32
WIXEY, S., see ENOCH, M.
World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention KHAYESI, M. & PEDEN, M. (4) 5
Y

(The) ‘YOU-move.nrw’ campaign – New partnerships for youth-oriented and environmentally friendly mobility

management REUTTER, O.                                                                                                                                                                                 (4) 15

Conference Announcement

Peak Oil UK

Entering the Age of Oil Depletion

A conference to discuss the impending peak then decline in
global oil production and its implications for the UK
at
The Royal Museum of Scotland
Chambers Street
Edinburgh
on
Monday 25 April 2005
9:00 am – 5:00 pm
Organised by Depletion Scotland
with support from The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC)

“The end of the fossil hydrocarbons scenario is… a view of scarcity
in the coming years and decades that must be taken seriously.
Forward- looking politicians, company chiefs and economists
should prepare for this in good time, to effect the necessary
transition as smoothly as possible”
Deutsche Bank, December 2004

Moderator: Mark Stephen, BBC Radio broadcaster
Speakers:
Brian Wilson, former Energy Minister
Colin Campbell, founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)
Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review
Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Company International
David Spaven, chair of TRANSform Scotland
Jeremy Leggett, chief executive of solarcentury
Roundtable session: One hour with all speakers, questions from the floor

http://www.depletion-scotland.org.uk/#conference

Contributions to World Transport Policy & Practice are welcome. Whether you are a novice author or an experienced one, the Editor would like to invite you to consider sharing your thoughts and experiences with others like yourself. We can promise a considered and constructive review of your article and, for contributions deemed suitable, publication in World Transport Policy & Practice.

Read through the following guidelines and feel free to contact John Whitelegg, the Editor, who will be pleased to offer comments on drafts, work in progress, or ideas which could be made into an article.

Editorial objectives

The journal aims to provide validated information about the latest developments in transport policy to enable local authorities, governments, consultancies, NGOs and supra­national organisations to speed up their policy development and implement new ideas from around the world. It will:

  • cover all passenger and freight transport
  • deal with global as well as local issues
  • include the development of the ideas of sustainability, the design of cities and rural areas, transport corridors and international links to improve health, the economy and the environment.

Article composition

Articles should normally be between 2,000 and 4,000 words. Shorter articles can be published as ‘Comment’ pieces. Responses to papers which have appeared in the journal, either as letters to the Editor or as response articles, will be welcomed.

Submitting articles

  1. 1.  By e-mail

Articles for publication may be submitted by e-mail attachment to Pascal Desmond. It is useful if authors indicate what software is required to read any attachments and if they include the letter combination ‘zq’ in the title. Please DO NOT name articles ‘whitelegg’, ‘wtpp’ or variations of these. Authors are advised that they may need to provide a version on paper and/or on 3.5” disk prepared on an Apple Macintosh or PC system.

  1. 2.  On paper

Three copies of articles, typescript and double spaced with wide margins are needed. Manuscripts will not normally be returned, so you should ensure you retain a copy. Provide the article on paper of no less than 80 gsm weight with high quality print. This will enable electronic scanning if needed. Please supply the same version of the article on a 3.5” disk prepared on a Macintosh or PC system in ASCII format. Mark the disk clearly with your name, the article title and the software you have used. Where there is ambiguity, the disk version will normally be considered definitive.

Presentation

Headings and subheadings should be used at approximately 500–750 word intervals. Ensure that headings and subheadings are clearly identified.

Charts, diagrams & figures

These should be called ‘Figures’ and numbered consecutively (e.g. Figure 1, Figure 2, etc.). Make sure they are clear and can be reproduced easily. In addition, provide the raw data so that we can redraw them, if necessary.

Indicate where in the text they should appear ‘(Figure 1 about here)’. Each figure should have a brief title (e.g. ‘Figure 1. Schematic of the Programme’).

Tables

Tables should be numbered consecutively, independently of figures. Indicate in the text where they should appear. Give them a brief title. Ensure that they are clear and legible. Authors should not use many tabs or spaces between columns of data – normally, one tab is sufficient.

Maps

Maps are especially welcome as ‘tiff’, ‘pict’ or ‘jpeg’. They should be numbered consecutively, independently of figures and tables and their location in the text should be indicated. Ensure that they are clear, uncluttered and legible. They should have a title.

Measurements

SI units should be used throughout.

Abstracts & Keywords

Write an abstract of 75 words or so which summarises the main points of the article. It should be sufficient for a reader to decide whether or not they want to read the whole article. Also note up to six keywords which describe the content of the article. These could include geographical area, if specific, industry, functions, managerial activity and process. References

Authors should keep references to a minimum, ideally no more that ten to fifteen. References should be confined to essential items only and those that are necessary to establish key steps in an argument or key areas of support for a particular proposition.

Reference citations within the text should be by the author’s last name, followed by a comma and year of publication enclosed in parentheses. A reference list should follow the article, with references listed in alphabetical order in the following form:

Books: Surname, Initials (Year of Publication) Title Place of Publication, Publisher.

Articles: Surname, Initials (Year of Publication) ‘Title’ Journal Volume, Number, Pages.

Originality

The author should indicate if a paper has been presented elsewhere. If the author does not do so, the Editor will assume that the paper is an original contribution. Papers appearing in World Transport Policy & Practice should not be published elsewhere without the written consent of the Publisher of the journal.

Copyright

Authors submitting articles for publication must warrant that the work is not an infringement of any existing copyright. Papers and contributions published become the legal copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise agreed. Contact details

World Transport Policy & Practice, Eco-Logica Ltd., 53 Derwent Road, LANCASTER, LA1 3ES. U.K.

Telephone: +44 1524 63175

Editor: Professor John Whitelegg <John.Whitelegg@phonecoop.coop>

Business Manager: Pascal Desmond <pascaldesmond@eircom.net> http://www.eco-logica.co.uk/WTPPhome.html

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